H559

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.369	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
86.275	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
79.203	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
79.149	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
78.825	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30)	Continuous
61.099	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
61.040	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
60.550	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2022)	Continuous
60.098	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous
59.371	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
58.701	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (May 14)	Continuous
58.201	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
58.109	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
57.776	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
56.551	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
55.697	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
53.801	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
53.699	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
52.280	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
48.565	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (May 14)	Continuous
48.465	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
48.303	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 4)	Continuous
46.305	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
45.497	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
45.275	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 30)	Continuous
45.096	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
44.389	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
43.364	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
42.476	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
42.421	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
41.724	Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best)	Binary
41.649	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
40.679	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
39.635	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
38.935	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
38.533	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
38.161	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
37.927	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
37.692	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
37.632	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
37.480	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
37.060	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
36.257	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
35.445	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16)	Continuous
35.177	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
34.514	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
33.975	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
33.820	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
33.339	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
32.673	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
32.177	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
32.068	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
31.832	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
31.659	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
30.632	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
30.119	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
29.919	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
29.901	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
29.464	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
29.001	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
28.231	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
27.997	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
27.772	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
27.305	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16)	Continuous
27.244	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
26.260	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
26.124	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
26.025	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
25.952	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
25.821	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
25.761	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
25.759	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16)	Continuous
25.445	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 30)	Continuous
25.009	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
24.403	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
24.135	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
24.009	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
23.652	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
23.477	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
23.412	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
23.115	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
23.079	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 18)	Continuous
22.536	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
22.376	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
22.213	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
22.170	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
22.118	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
21.711	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
20.935	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
20.533	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
20.315	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
20.176	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (July 2)	Continuous
20.090	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
19.941	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (October 2022)	Continuous
19.939	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
19.890	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
19.722	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
19.721	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
19.706	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
19.460	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (David Waihiga Mwaure)	Binary
19.456	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
19.207	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
19.076	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
18.768	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 11)	Continuous
18.752	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
18.624	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (May 14)	Continuous
18.395	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
18.027	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
17.851	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
17.636	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
17.633	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
17.194	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
17.174	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
17.146	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
16.874	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
16.714	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
16.645	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
16.628	How many scheduled airline flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on Wednesday, November 23rd (the day before Thanksgiving), as reported by FlightAware?	Continuous
16.274	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16)	Continuous
16.266	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (May 14)	Continuous
16.192	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
16.177	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
16.127	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 25)	Continuous
15.925	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (May 14)	Continuous
15.811	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
15.684	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
15.631	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
15.564	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
15.485	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
15.315	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
15.190	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
14.996	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
14.833	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
14.738	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
14.714	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
14.681	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
14.495	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
14.447	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
14.417	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
14.387	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
14.114	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
13.739	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
13.705	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
13.678	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (St. Louis Cardinals)	Binary
13.628	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
13.591	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 11)	Continuous
13.331	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
13.262	Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?	Binary
13.108	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
13.023	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
13.018	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
12.989	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
12.867	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
12.760	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
12.694	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Argentine Peso $)	Binary
12.679	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
12.576	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
12.298	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
12.170	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
12.109	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
11.898	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
11.752	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
11.540	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
11.504	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Wesley So)	Binary
11.294	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
11.243	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
11.002	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
10.942	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
10.803	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
10.387	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
10.247	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
10.213	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
10.158	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
10.081	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
9.967	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
9.965	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
9.864	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Angels)	Binary
9.850	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
9.801	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
9.773	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
9.747	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
9.712	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
9.704	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
9.605	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?	Continuous
9.598	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga)	Binary
9.551	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
9.539	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
9.498	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
9.158	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
9.093	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ding Liren)	Binary
9.008	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
8.975	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
8.973	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
8.845	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
8.750	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
8.674	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
8.614	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
8.348	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
8.235	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners)	Binary
8.228	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
8.196	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
8.190	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cleveland Guardians)	Binary
8.101	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
8.070	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
8.036	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
7.983	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
7.956	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
7.933	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
7.863	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Tampa Bay Rays)	Binary
7.828	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
7.734	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
7.691	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
7.687	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Mets)	Binary
7.517	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
7.515	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
7.470	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
7.338	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
7.196	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
7.121	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
7.084	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
7.048	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
7.031	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto)	Binary
7.024	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022?	Continuous
6.997	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
6.924	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
6.917	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
6.916	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (December 2022)	Continuous
6.861	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
6.614	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
6.600	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
6.558	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Diego Padres)	Binary
6.551	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
6.521	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Baltimore Orioles)	Binary
6.471	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
6.450	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
6.410	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
6.399	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
6.299	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Boston Red Sox)	Binary
6.281	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
6.278	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
6.262	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 30)	Continuous
6.094	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
5.995	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
5.951	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
5.951	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Toronto Blue Jays)	Binary
5.912	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
5.889	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
5.885	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
5.857	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
5.830	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
5.774	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
5.554	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
5.405	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
5.286	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
5.194	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
5.186	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Francisco Giants)	Binary
5.109	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022?	Continuous
5.051	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
5.021	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
4.931	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 18)	Continuous
4.876	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago White Sox)	Binary
4.826	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc)	Binary
4.795	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
4.720	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Oakland Athletics)	Binary
4.700	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
4.633	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (George Wajackoyah)	Binary
4.632	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago Cubs)	Binary
4.508	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
4.486	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Yankees)	Binary
4.439	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
4.350	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Washington Nationals)	Binary
4.289	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
4.277	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Teimour Radjabov)	Binary
4.227	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Milwaukee Brewers)	Binary
4.194	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
4.188	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
4.173	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
4.155	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
4.146	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 18)	Continuous
4.117	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Colorado Rockies)	Binary
4.100	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 18)	Continuous
4.031	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
4.006	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
3.977	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
3.921	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Kansas City Royals)	Binary
3.891	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cincinnati Reds)	Binary
3.890	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
3.885	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
3.829	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Pittsburgh Pirates)	Binary
3.826	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
3.826	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
3.812	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
3.773	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
3.756	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
3.718	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
3.689	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Detroit Tigers)	Binary
3.652	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
3.642	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
3.549	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.545	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
3.460	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
3.426	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
3.405	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
3.373	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
3.360	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
3.324	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
3.298	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
3.279	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
3.279	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
3.277	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
3.269	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
3.266	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 18)	Continuous
3.266	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 30)	Continuous
3.249	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
3.245	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
3.235	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
3.233	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
3.049	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
3.032	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
2.994	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
2.976	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (May 14)	Continuous
2.941	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
2.900	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton)	Binary
2.899	Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?	Binary
2.878	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
2.870	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
2.801	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
2.784	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
2.757	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
2.740	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hjörvar Steinn Grétarsson)	Binary
2.727	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
2.723	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
2.721	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
2.578	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
2.533	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
2.526	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
2.484	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
2.438	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
2.434	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
2.432	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
2.405	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
2.386	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
2.356	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
2.333	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
2.313	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
2.295	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
2.289	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
2.233	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
2.135	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Miami Marlins)	Binary
2.104	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
1.967	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
1.919	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
1.879	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
1.859	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
1.854	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
1.831	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
1.758	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
1.755	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
1.673	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
1.649	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
1.625	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
1.620	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
1.567	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
1.540	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
1.513	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
1.503	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
1.467	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
1.408	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (September 1, 2022)	Continuous
1.327	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
1.224	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
1.190	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Richárd Rapport)	Binary
1.175	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 11)	Continuous
1.171	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
1.171	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
1.053	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
1.017	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
0.968	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
0.960	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
0.938	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
0.813	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.805	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
0.721	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
0.707	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
0.687	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
0.626	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
0.611	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
0.523	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
0.514	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.419	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
0.407	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.394	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.334	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
0.283	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
0.193	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
0.185	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
0.129	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Matthias Blübaum)	Binary
0.099	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell)	Binary
0.097	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
0.072	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
0.067	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
0.055	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
0.025	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
0.024	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
-0.008	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 25)	Continuous
-0.012	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
-0.037	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
-0.072	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
-0.313	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-0.329	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-0.388	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
-0.462	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-0.533	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-0.551	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 11)	Continuous
-0.616	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
-0.661	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz)	Binary
-0.662	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
-0.674	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
-0.690	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-0.717	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
-0.806	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-0.818	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
-1.038	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Élisabeth Borne)	Binary
-1.113	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
-1.125	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen)	Binary
-1.135	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
-1.156	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison)	Binary
-1.234	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
-1.393	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
-1.570	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-1.654	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 25)	Continuous
-1.779	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
-2.011	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
-2.019	Where will Sitong Bridge rank in FreeWeibo's trending topics on the following dates? (2022-12-08)	Continuous
-2.080	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-2.199	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-2.310	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 25)	Continuous
-2.425	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber)	Binary
-2.592	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
-2.634	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez)	Binary
-2.838	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
-2.876	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
-2.917	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022)	Continuous
-3.165	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
-3.213	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-3.586	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
-3.806	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
-3.814	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
-3.827	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
-3.872	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-3.959	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
-4.086	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-4.268	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis)	Binary
-4.317	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (June 4)	Continuous
-4.354	Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?	Binary
-4.538	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (November 2022)	Continuous
-4.642	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
-5.142	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
-5.330	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-5.331	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Marine Le Pen)	Binary
-5.429	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 11)	Continuous
-6.285	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
-6.358	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (July 2)	Continuous
-6.756	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
-6.785	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros)	Binary
-6.948	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
-8.283	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)	Binary
-8.660	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
-8.892	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 25)	Continuous
-9.168	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
-9.215	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 4)	Continuous
-9.394	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
-11.049	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 4)	Continuous
-12.600	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
-12.758	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-13.954	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
-15.724	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
-17.441	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
-18.034	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
-18.193	Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best)	Binary
-19.083	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 30)	Continuous
-25.763	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
-26.718	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-29.013	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
-29.320	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
-29.321	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
-31.087	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
-33.760	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-38.204	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
-38.779	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
-39.108	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
-42.292	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
-44.146	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-45.071	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 31)	Continuous
-46.839	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
-47.674	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
-63.698	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
-77.707	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary

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