maverickmath

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

3.019	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
20.445	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
18.765	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
10.936	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.949	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.425	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.312	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
6.030	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
5.947	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
5.344	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
3.909	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
3.640	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
3.350	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
2.909	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
2.880	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.639	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
2.638	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
1.970	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
1.706	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
1.692	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
1.048	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.046	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.984	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.582	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
0.539	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.498	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.336	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
0.234	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary

MetaculusM

maverickmath

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.