alexanderpasch

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.491	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
83.257	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
64.411	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
51.292	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
46.546	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
45.530	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
41.226	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
36.965	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
33.696	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
31.562	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
30.463	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
30.184	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
29.795	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
29.119	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
27.369	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
27.332	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
27.274	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
24.927	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
24.285	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
23.652	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
22.138	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
21.637	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
21.361	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
19.660	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
19.485	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
19.328	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
18.603	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
17.647	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
16.993	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
16.888	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
15.292	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
15.127	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
14.288	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
14.189	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
13.922	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
13.915	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
13.430	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
13.387	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
12.467	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
12.368	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
12.095	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
12.006	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
11.440	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
11.201	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
10.502	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
10.313	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
10.154	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
10.061	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
9.958	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
9.772	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
9.628	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
8.806	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
8.664	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
8.340	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
7.366	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
6.357	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
6.325	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
6.248	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
6.247	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
5.999	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
5.934	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
5.823	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
5.798	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
5.734	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
5.677	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
5.527	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
5.393	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
5.372	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
5.342	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
4.938	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
4.866	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
4.845	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.843	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
4.777	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
4.191	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
3.917	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
3.873	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
3.709	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
3.567	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.505	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
3.502	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
3.400	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
3.307	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
3.260	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
3.004	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
2.993	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
2.982	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
2.930	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
2.799	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
2.743	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
2.742	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
2.529	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
2.498	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
2.498	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
2.455	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
2.347	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
2.309	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
2.284	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
2.175	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
2.137	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
2.008	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
1.992	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
1.845	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
1.804	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
1.543	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
1.367	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
1.235	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
1.170	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
1.167	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
1.063	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
0.924	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
0.290	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
0.203	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
0.166	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
-0.084	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
-0.147	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
-0.301	Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-0.777	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
-1.720	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-2.855	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-2.859	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
-4.619	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
-5.060	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
-5.649	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-7.394	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
-12.308	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-12.443	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
-12.792	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
-13.239	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
-15.483	What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?	Continuous
-33.078	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-54.210	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
-86.010	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

alexanderpasch

User

alexanderpasch