109.942 | 99.8% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
75.782 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Latvia) | Binary |
75.489 | 77.2% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
75.112 | 98.2% | Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award? | Multiple Choice |
74.198 | 73.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
70.740 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas) | Continuous |
70.485 | 98.9% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
66.760 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey) | Continuous |
66.218 | 100.0% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
63.236 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Poland) | Binary |
60.739 | 45.7% | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
58.969 | 99.8% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
58.721 | 99.1% | 2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election? | Binary |
58.675 | 99.5% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
57.508 | 99.9% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
56.366 | 83.8% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
54.959 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Portugal) | Binary |
54.704 | 66.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
54.608 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Belgium) | Binary |
53.233 | 97.3% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
53.168 | 75.4% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
52.173 | 66.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
52.015 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida) | Continuous |
49.736 | 75.0% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
49.122 | 100.0% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
48.973 | 98.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
48.140 | 98.0% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
47.805 | 100.0% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
47.426 | 100.0% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
46.297 | 98.9% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
45.035 | 99.8% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
43.882 | 96.5% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
43.759 | 70.8% | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
43.683 | 99.3% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
43.462 | 98.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
43.418 | 82.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
43.288 | 98.9% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
41.740 | 94.4% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
41.576 | 100.0% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
39.257 | 62.0% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
39.073 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona) | Continuous |
37.576 | 98.9% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
36.838 | 99.6% | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
36.658 | 98.9% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
36.498 | 41.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Libertés, Indépendants, OutreMer, Territoires) | Continuous |
36.159 | 93.9% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
35.056 | 83.0% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
34.100 | 79.2% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
33.860 | 44.4% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
33.696 | 75.0% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
33.004 | 86.2% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
32.743 | 83.9% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique? | Multiple Choice |
31.356 | 99.5% | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
31.133 | 97.2% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
30.977 | 64.5% | How Many States Will Split the Senate-Presidential Ticket in the 2024 US Election? | Multiple Choice |
30.714 | 98.9% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
30.121 | 49.0% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.978 | 71.4% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
29.725 | 99.2% | EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025) | Continuous |
28.852 | 41.4% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Horizons) | Continuous |
28.785 | 65.1% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
28.654 | 100.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.192 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York) | Continuous |
27.858 | 88.4% | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
27.718 | 40.2% | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
27.227 | 99.0% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
26.684 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Slovenia) | Binary |
26.319 | 77.6% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
26.056 | 98.9% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
25.814 | 95.4% | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
25.619 | 94.8% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
25.129 | 98.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
24.928 | 98.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
24.637 | 93.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
24.633 | 99.7% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
24.453 | 91.9% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
24.251 | 42.2% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
24.164 | 94.4% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
24.071 | 82.6% | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
23.279 | 98.9% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
23.079 | 99.7% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
22.975 | 99.9% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
22.793 | 39.4% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
21.962 | 98.9% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.961 | 86.1% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
21.901 | 99.6% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
21.714 | 66.5% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
21.446 | 51.8% | How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024? | Continuous |
21.403 | 62.9% | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
21.321 | 77.8% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
21.277 | 98.8% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
21.260 | 99.8% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.116 | 100.0% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
21.109 | 98.9% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
20.993 | 52.6% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
20.723 | 100.0% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
20.654 | 99.0% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
20.385 | 91.2% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.355 | 90.4% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
20.284 | 77.9% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
19.996 | 89.8% | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | Binary |
19.765 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
19.181 | 99.6% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
19.009 | 87.5% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
18.998 | 96.4% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
18.872 | 41.4% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Démocrates (Modem and independents)) | Continuous |
18.737 | 96.0% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.700 | 95.0% | Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
18.680 | 77.6% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
18.527 | 95.6% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
18.376 | 99.2% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
18.160 | 100.0% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
17.775 | 98.4% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
17.621 | 96.9% | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
17.533 | 59.9% | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
17.493 | 73.5% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
17.319 | 97.6% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
17.298 | 98.9% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
17.025 | 98.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
16.663 | 82.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
16.624 | 41.8% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
16.270 | 86.4% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.962 | 97.6% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
15.944 | 66.3% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
15.885 | 99.0% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
15.791 | 94.7% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
15.763 | 98.7% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
15.565 | 10.2% | 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? | Binary |
15.443 | 90.3% | What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)? | Continuous |
15.410 | 72.0% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
15.254 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio) | Continuous |
15.247 | 98.9% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
15.157 | 96.3% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
15.143 | 99.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
15.132 | 58.9% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.022 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada) | Continuous |
14.697 | 99.4% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
14.596 | 47.3% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.501 | 71.0% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.166 | 29.3% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
14.135 | 98.9% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.085 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Georgia) | Binary |
14.083 | 94.4% | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
14.001 | 41.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Les Républicains) | Continuous |
13.894 | 40.2% | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
13.888 | 50.0% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
13.512 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Serbia) | Binary |
13.441 | 62.8% | What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024? | Continuous |
13.247 | 99.2% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
13.058 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Luxembourg) | Binary |
12.987 | 58.7% | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
12.964 | 68.7% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
12.824 | 56.7% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
12.714 | 56.9% | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
12.692 | 94.8% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
12.620 | 23.4% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
12.369 | 100.0% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
12.167 | 17.6% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
11.961 | 94.4% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
11.933 | 91.3% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.914 | 99.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
11.800 | 68.7% | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
11.441 | 97.3% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
11.421 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan) | Continuous |
11.273 | 100.0% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
11.155 | 27.9% | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
10.935 | 100.0% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
10.894 | 100.0% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
10.772 | 85.4% | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
10.712 | 94.0% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
10.708 | 89.1% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
10.466 | 41.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (La France Insoumise) | Continuous |
10.313 | 42.8% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
10.236 | 26.2% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
10.010 | 69.5% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
10.004 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
9.930 | 86.4% | FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak? | Continuous |
9.709 | 97.6% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
9.538 | 17.6% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
9.347 | 86.5% | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
9.338 | 20.3% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
9.297 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
9.286 | 100.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
9.203 | 95.8% | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
9.198 | 98.8% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
8.967 | 77.1% | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
8.632 | 73.2% | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
8.307 | 54.4% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
8.172 | 86.5% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
8.150 | 92.2% | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024) | Continuous |
8.089 | 23.6% | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
7.999 | 92.7% | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
7.792 | 45.6% | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
7.661 | 14.1% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
7.641 | 97.7% | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
7.584 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico) | Continuous |
7.420 | 97.1% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
7.356 | 21.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1) | Binary |
7.292 | 44.2% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka? | Multiple Choice |
7.244 | 41.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Socialiste) | Continuous |
7.232 | 9.2% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
7.203 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
7.138 | 72.3% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
6.985 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
6.826 | 89.0% | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.755 | 84.8% | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
6.593 | 99.0% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
6.563 | 95.7% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
6.404 | 20.6% | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | Binary |
6.372 | 99.9% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
6.216 | 98.2% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
6.162 | 99.8% | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
5.918 | 52.7% | Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024? | Binary |
5.801 | 100.0% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
5.680 | 75.9% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria? | Multiple Choice |
5.600 | 89.4% | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
5.410 | 56.0% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania? | Multiple Choice |
5.397 | 77.5% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
5.319 | 41.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Renaissance) | Continuous |
5.314 | 13.2% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
5.227 | 75.1% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.030 | 72.4% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
4.853 | 91.4% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.839 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
4.797 | 75.4% | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
4.719 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
4.688 | 83.1% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.676 | 94.8% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat) | Binary |
4.613 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (San Marino) | Binary |
4.523 | 43.9% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
4.480 | 37.5% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad? | Multiple Choice |
4.404 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.369 | 41.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
4.275 | 10.2% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
4.271 | 81.1% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
4.230 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina) | Continuous |
4.062 | 70.8% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.047 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
4.030 | 96.0% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
3.934 | 72.7% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on November 8, 2024? | Continuous |
3.873 | 41.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Non affiliated) | Continuous |
3.753 | 99.5% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.733 | 94.8% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly) | Binary |
3.562 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Israel) | Binary |
3.549 | 89.1% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
3.450 | 51.0% | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
3.422 | 91.0% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.389 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Cyprus) | Binary |
3.306 | 72.2% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Sep. 28, '24) | Continuous |
3.192 | 43.4% | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
3.185 | 56.9% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
3.161 | 93.1% | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
3.108 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Netherlands) | Binary |
3.073 | 61.7% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
3.039 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ukraine) | Binary |
2.914 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
2.840 | 13.3% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
2.787 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
2.778 | 98.0% | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
2.678 | 99.2% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
2.678 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
2.649 | 99.2% | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
2.532 | 19.2% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.455 | 93.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
1.898 | 93.4% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
1.844 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Greece) | Binary |
1.763 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.761 | 74.5% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
1.726 | 73.5% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
1.680 | 99.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
1.631 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
1.476 | 22.1% | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
1.437 | 34.9% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
1.415 | 67.6% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
1.400 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire) | Continuous |
1.380 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland) | Binary |
1.316 | 98.4% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.283 | 94.7% | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
1.226 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Illinois) | Continuous |
1.057 | 8.3% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
1.055 | 58.1% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda? | Multiple Choice |
1.047 | 97.4% | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
1.026 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
1.019 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
0.981 | 89.5% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
0.963 | 17.2% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (May 31, '24) | Continuous |
0.922 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.915 | 6.5% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture) | Binary |
0.803 | 67.4% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Aug. 31, '24) | Continuous |
0.780 | 6.0% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
0.771 | 95.7% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
0.681 | 94.8% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride) | Binary |
0.670 | 6.5% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay) | Binary |
0.637 | 4.6% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.530 | 1.0% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
0.454 | 0.8% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
0.432 | 86.9% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
0.427 | 6.5% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director) | Binary |
0.400 | 0.7% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.390 | 30.9% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.316 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.297 | 2.2% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
0.154 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.154 | 82.5% | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.097 | 82.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.082 | 93.3% | How many personal bankruptcies will be filed in the United States in the third quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
0.048 | 82.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.047 | 78.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.016 | 15.0% | Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.004 | 89.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
-0.012 | 82.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
-0.337 | 6.5% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress) | Binary |
-0.357 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Armenia) | Binary |
-0.686 | 49.9% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
-0.761 | 94.8% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel) | Binary |
-0.808 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Norway) | Binary |
-0.813 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska) | Continuous |
-1.052 | 96.2% | Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-1.150 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland) | Binary |
-1.292 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin) | Continuous |
-1.293 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Estonia) | Binary |
-1.399 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia) | Binary |
-1.431 | 86.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
-1.692 | 3.9% | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
-2.053 | 99.6% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
-2.415 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Austria) | Binary |
-3.126 | 14.5% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-3.290 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia) | Continuous |
-3.300 | 98.1% | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-3.575 | 50.2% | Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-3.629 | 95.5% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
-3.630 | 40.0% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-4.090 | 99.1% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
-4.354 | 97.6% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
-4.702 | 76.6% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Oct. 31, '24) | Continuous |
-4.979 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota) | Continuous |
-5.036 | 46.6% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jun. 29, '24) | Continuous |
-5.696 | 34.6% | Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community? | Continuous |
-6.165 | 98.8% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-6.723 | 60.6% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jul. 31, '24) | Continuous |
-7.235 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide)) | Continuous |
-7.243 | 94.8% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick) | Binary |
-7.455 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Albania) | Binary |
-7.502 | 77.8% | 2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%? (No) → 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? | Binary |
-7.628 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district) | Continuous |
-7.666 | 79.2% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Nov. 30, '24) | Continuous |
-7.897 | 72.8% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-8.072 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Lithuania) | Binary |
-8.510 | 84.8% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
-8.525 | 96.5% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
-9.104 | 93.4% | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
-9.339 | 97.9% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-9.546 | 41.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National) | Continuous |
-10.089 | 99.4% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
-10.343 | 98.6% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-10.415 | 41.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Ecologistes) | Continuous |
-10.631 | 48.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Denmark) | Binary |
-11.361 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado) | Continuous |
-11.575 | 83.4% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
-11.707 | 98.9% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-11.833 | 97.4% | (closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-12.231 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa) | Continuous |
-12.286 | 98.6% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
-12.483 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ireland) | Binary |
-12.612 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia) | Continuous |
-13.488 | 98.8% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-14.371 | 97.0% | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
-15.119 | 94.4% | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
-15.520 | 60.8% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
-16.629 | 99.0% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
-16.923 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Oregon) | Continuous |
-18.878 | 29.9% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
-20.177 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Washington (state)) | Continuous |
-20.290 | 99.4% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-21.066 | 41.4% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Communiste) | Continuous |
-21.961 | 48.3% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Azerbaijan) | Binary |
-25.266 | 93.6% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Delaware) | Continuous |
-25.506 | 96.5% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
-27.917 | 99.5% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
-34.029 | 75.5% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
-34.222 | 53.0% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-35.808 | 93.2% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-44.177 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-45.936 | 98.6% | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | Binary |
-57.141 | 99.4% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
-68.834 | 64.7% | Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament? | Binary |
-132.699 | 92.6% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |