102.956 | 99.3% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
66.298 | 97.8% | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ? | Binary |
62.554 | 94.1% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
61.214 | 98.3% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
55.509 | 88.8% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
51.906 | 94.3% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
46.100 | 95.1% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
45.576 | 99.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
43.568 | 99.3% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
40.746 | 61.9% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
40.036 | 97.8% | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ? | Binary |
39.158 | 88.4% | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
38.858 | 99.3% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
38.564 | 98.8% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
38.057 | 99.7% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
37.074 | 63.2% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
34.247 | 76.8% | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
33.850 | 99.4% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
32.900 | 89.7% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
32.413 | 98.8% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
31.082 | 100.0% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
29.435 | 99.6% | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
28.803 | 79.9% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
26.860 | 74.8% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
24.655 | 99.8% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
24.533 | 96.8% | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
23.914 | 56.4% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
23.474 | 54.5% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.041 | 99.2% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
22.949 | 61.7% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
22.425 | 99.8% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
22.290 | 88.9% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.744 | 85.4% | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
21.520 | 100.0% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
21.230 | 15.1% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
21.141 | 96.3% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
21.032 | 30.4% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.834 | 44.8% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
20.790 | 99.6% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
20.670 | 99.3% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
20.040 | 44.1% | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | Binary |
19.791 | 27.2% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
19.542 | 100.0% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay) | Binary |
19.050 | 83.1% | Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections? | Binary |
18.627 | 95.8% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
17.584 | 98.8% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
17.575 | 29.9% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
17.339 | 96.5% | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
16.190 | 62.9% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
15.867 | 27.3% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
15.723 | 29.9% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
15.619 | 91.8% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
15.434 | 99.8% | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | Binary |
15.322 | 99.3% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
15.073 | 50.4% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.901 | 47.6% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
14.591 | 52.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.539 | 100.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
14.373 | 96.9% | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
14.171 | 94.0% | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
14.040 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
13.263 | 91.3% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
12.999 | 73.2% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
12.802 | 92.6% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
12.665 | 52.9% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.546 | 99.3% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
12.513 | 94.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.472 | 63.1% | Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament? | Binary |
12.308 | 52.6% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China) | Binary |
12.145 | 96.1% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
12.009 | 87.2% | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.955 | 37.3% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.812 | 80.6% | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
11.614 | 44.4% | What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament? | Multiple Choice |
11.564 | 51.2% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.381 | 99.7% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
10.924 | 98.7% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
10.641 | 91.9% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
10.417 | 89.0% | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
10.091 | 16.2% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
9.409 | 58.7% | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
9.386 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (CH (Chega!)) | Continuous |
8.751 | 91.1% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.713 | 70.4% | Will the minimum wage in TĂĽrkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
8.511 | 40.0% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
8.490 | 97.5% | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
8.410 | 100.0% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director) | Binary |
7.741 | 99.9% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
7.643 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
7.608 | 95.2% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.554 | 59.2% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
7.524 | 33.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany) | Binary |
7.479 | 70.7% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
7.427 | 99.7% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
7.153 | 95.5% | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | Binary |
7.149 | 82.8% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.669 | 30.9% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.628 | 19.4% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.229 | 58.7% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.228 | 96.3% | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.119 | 56.1% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
6.112 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
5.997 | 24.2% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
5.926 | 98.8% | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
5.660 | 65.1% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
5.595 | 97.8% | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
5.458 | 45.9% | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
5.346 | 70.2% | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.240 | 72.3% | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
5.189 | 56.3% | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
5.121 | 98.9% | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
5.099 | 82.8% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
5.075 | 16.3% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
5.038 | 27.2% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.885 | 44.5% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.880 | 100.0% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
4.439 | 90.4% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.389 | 52.6% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia) | Binary |
4.209 | 77.5% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
4.143 | 94.1% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.023 | 24.2% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
3.972 | 12.6% | Which team will win the National League Central Division during the 2024 Major League Baseball season? | Multiple Choice |
3.892 | 43.5% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
3.780 | 47.7% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.730 | 66.9% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.727 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (PAN (Pessoas-Animais-Natureza)) | Continuous |
3.726 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (VP (Volt Portugal)) | Continuous |
3.726 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (RIR (Reagir, Incluir, Reciclar)) | Continuous |
3.724 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (JPP (Juntos pelo Povo)) | Continuous |
3.721 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (ADN (Alternativa Democrática Nacional)) | Continuous |
3.476 | 9.1% | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | Binary |
3.366 | 4.2% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
3.350 | 72.6% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.250 | 35.2% | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
3.249 | 63.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.047 | 12.1% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
2.897 | 57.2% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
2.864 | 47.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia) | Binary |
2.806 | 19.2% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
2.796 | 43.5% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria? | Multiple Choice |
2.670 | 58.9% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
2.626 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (BE (Bloco de Esquerda)) | Continuous |
2.625 | 24.7% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.555 | 6.8% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France) | Binary |
2.462 | 91.4% | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
2.457 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
2.444 | 63.8% | Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024? | Binary |
2.404 | 100.0% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture) | Binary |
2.376 | 6.8% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico) | Binary |
2.355 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
2.328 | 24.0% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.159 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (IL (Iniciativa Liberal)) | Continuous |
1.980 | 7.7% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.961 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
1.936 | 4.4% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
1.768 | 6.8% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil) | Binary |
1.672 | 85.3% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
1.569 | 52.7% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States) | Binary |
1.413 | 6.8% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh) | Binary |
1.393 | 4.3% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
1.357 | 66.2% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
1.224 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (CDU (Coligação Democrática Unitária)) | Continuous |
1.197 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
1.098 | 22.5% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
1.095 | 18.7% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
0.990 | 86.1% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.884 | 34.0% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
0.821 | 48.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
0.725 | 3.2% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
0.681 | 3.4% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
0.576 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
0.550 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
0.490 | 20.5% | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
0.456 | 79.1% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
0.441 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
0.425 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
0.313 | 97.9% | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
0.296 | 52.6% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
0.279 | 1.7% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
0.248 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.216 | 29.4% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
0.199 | 0.7% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.190 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.175 | 5.3% | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
0.161 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.154 | 75.9% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
0.151 | 1.7% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
0.150 | 3.5% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
0.146 | 5.0% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
0.133 | 20.4% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
0.111 | 1.8% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
0.106 | 1.8% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
0.102 | 0.9% | Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024? | Binary |
0.101 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.098 | 1.7% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
0.094 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.091 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.087 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.084 | 27.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.073 | 7.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (AD (Aliança Democrática)) | Continuous |
0.055 | 1.7% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
0.044 | 1.7% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
0.030 | 1.9% | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
0.030 | 1.0% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
0.021 | 1.9% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda? | Multiple Choice |
0.020 | 0.1% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.007 | 0.5% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.004 | 0.1% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.002 | 0.8% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
-0.040 | 81.3% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
-0.066 | 3.9% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
-0.077 | 3.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
-0.097 | 0.4% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
-0.171 | 87.4% | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
-0.247 | 3.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri) | Binary |
-0.293 | 99.2% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-0.306 | 3.9% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
-0.338 | 5.5% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
-0.340 | 5.9% | [Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII? | Binary |
-0.449 | 3.9% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
-0.451 | 73.5% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
-0.515 | 99.8% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
-0.571 | 52.3% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.894 | 57.8% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-0.981 | 7.4% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.989 | 95.3% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.067 | 7.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (PS (Partido Socialista)) | Continuous |
-1.126 | 81.0% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.185 | 99.3% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
-1.400 | 7.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (L (LIVRE)) | Continuous |
-1.678 | 53.2% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
-1.862 | 40.4% | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
-2.053 | 88.4% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
-2.103 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
-2.422 | 27.9% | Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)? | Binary |
-2.630 | 85.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
-3.017 | 23.4% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-3.267 | 51.6% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
-3.415 | 44.9% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
-3.837 | 75.3% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (May 2024) | Continuous |
-3.897 | 74.1% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
-4.350 | 88.5% | Which NHL team will win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup? | Multiple Choice |
-4.478 | 68.0% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-4.743 | 96.4% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
-5.461 | 99.3% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
-6.913 | 85.6% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-8.327 | 84.0% | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
-8.773 | 63.2% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
-9.787 | 86.2% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-10.581 | 100.0% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress) | Binary |
-11.138 | 67.6% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
-11.243 | 82.5% | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
-11.462 | 40.8% | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
-11.497 | 97.2% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-12.581 | 99.5% | Will gang leader JosĂ© Adolfo MacĂas Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-13.101 | 83.2% | Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season? | Binary |
-15.344 | 99.3% | Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion? | Binary |
-15.809 | 68.5% | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
-17.276 | 99.8% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
-18.738 | 99.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
-19.077 | 99.2% | Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025? | Binary |
-27.994 | 90.8% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
-46.267 | 93.6% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-63.308 | 71.4% | Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award? | Multiple Choice |