79.142 | 72.9% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
75.895 | 99.9% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
66.277 | 100.0% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
57.973 | 97.1% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
48.656 | 82.1% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
48.361 | 100.0% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
44.084 | 99.3% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
42.276 | 100.0% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
41.777 | 99.2% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
40.987 | 99.8% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
40.887 | 99.5% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
40.311 | 96.0% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.379 | 89.1% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
37.654 | 100.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
35.599 | 100.0% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
35.395 | 97.0% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
32.415 | 87.4% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
31.768 | 90.8% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
31.403 | 90.8% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
31.314 | 99.4% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
31.248 | 99.5% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
28.743 | 99.9% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
28.375 | 96.1% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
28.172 | 91.2% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
28.036 | 100.0% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
27.734 | 90.8% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
27.653 | 99.1% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
25.777 | 98.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
25.542 | 97.4% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
21.178 | 42.9% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
21.171 | 96.6% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
21.158 | 92.6% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
20.515 | 98.5% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.492 | 91.8% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
19.646 | 87.4% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
19.334 | 81.7% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
19.286 | 89.4% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
18.932 | 97.2% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
18.536 | 71.7% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
17.826 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
17.438 | 98.0% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.351 | 34.1% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
17.252 | 97.9% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
16.190 | 99.4% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
15.934 | 100.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
15.657 | 98.5% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.325 | 100.0% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
15.030 | 18.0% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
15.018 | 55.3% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
14.957 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
14.502 | 94.6% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
14.126 | 81.5% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
14.101 | 94.3% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.096 | 60.3% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
13.593 | 100.0% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
13.307 | 56.9% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
12.922 | 100.0% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
12.806 | 40.3% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
12.689 | 96.2% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
12.386 | 100.0% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
12.135 | 94.5% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.922 | 38.2% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.213 | 84.6% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
10.957 | 97.2% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
10.876 | 90.8% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
10.766 | 100.0% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
10.503 | 81.2% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.393 | 95.1% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.754 | 51.1% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
8.548 | 17.0% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
7.826 | 95.8% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
7.335 | 98.1% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
7.069 | 99.8% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.928 | 62.3% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
6.691 | 99.4% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.673 | 99.5% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
6.597 | 98.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
6.489 | 87.7% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
6.015 | 58.3% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
5.980 | 60.0% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
5.897 | 100.0% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.762 | 97.7% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.651 | 93.8% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.148 | 94.7% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
5.104 | 96.9% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.070 | 99.8% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
4.304 | 93.8% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.217 | 98.9% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
3.540 | 45.9% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
3.454 | 65.0% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.445 | 39.9% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.325 | 91.9% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.246 | 92.0% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.215 | 93.5% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
2.969 | 72.6% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
2.953 | 13.4% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
2.909 | 62.3% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.846 | 25.2% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
2.636 | 83.7% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
1.987 | 42.5% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
1.708 | 88.6% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
1.453 | 98.8% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.892 | 89.4% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
0.834 | 97.2% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.570 | 83.0% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.289 | 1.5% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.157 | 36.7% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.618 | 1.1% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-0.941 | 73.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
-1.019 | 27.1% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-1.482 | 16.5% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
-1.897 | 97.8% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
-2.007 | 68.2% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
-2.528 | 8.8% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-2.580 | 8.1% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.744 | 81.8% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-7.451 | 35.7% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
-8.204 | 88.5% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
-11.179 | 86.6% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
-17.469 | 47.0% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-19.314 | 97.5% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
-21.018 | 99.8% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
-23.389 | 99.0% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
-23.814 | 48.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-29.118 | 99.9% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-31.043 | 100.0% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-33.437 | 93.5% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-39.609 | 67.5% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-48.374 | 41.4% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
-48.729 | 63.5% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-52.106 | 63.4% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-77.221 | 61.9% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |