85.800 | 55.3% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
79.155 | 97.2% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
71.930 | 96.1% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
67.052 | 91.6% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
58.031 | 90.4% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
56.506 | 97.6% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
53.788 | 94.2% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
53.466 | 88.7% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
52.964 | 99.9% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
50.675 | 99.9% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
50.041 | 31.7% | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
49.319 | 90.6% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
48.526 | 98.5% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
45.747 | 79.3% | Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election? | Binary |
43.331 | 83.9% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
43.243 | 96.3% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
42.630 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
42.317 | 99.7% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
42.235 | 99.9% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
42.119 | 99.6% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
41.535 | 90.4% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
40.894 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
39.561 | 88.7% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
39.115 | 99.9% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
38.849 | 75.4% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
38.053 | 95.7% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
36.149 | 100.0% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
36.132 | 99.3% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
35.579 | 83.3% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
34.993 | 99.9% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
34.741 | 99.7% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
34.643 | 78.2% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
33.534 | 99.9% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
33.275 | 96.5% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
33.036 | 97.4% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
32.588 | 94.5% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
31.728 | 99.9% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
31.481 | 99.0% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
31.137 | 99.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
30.478 | 91.2% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
28.892 | 98.5% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
28.593 | 99.6% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
28.567 | 98.2% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.280 | 98.1% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
28.154 | 98.6% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
27.940 | 91.6% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
27.868 | 99.9% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
26.846 | 97.0% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
26.393 | 91.6% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
26.381 | 59.7% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
26.340 | 98.6% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
26.304 | 99.9% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
26.047 | 99.5% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
25.889 | 93.7% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
25.781 | 15.5% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
25.630 | 62.4% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
25.110 | 99.9% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
25.091 | 99.9% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
24.705 | 72.9% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
24.291 | 47.9% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
24.056 | 99.9% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
23.745 | 99.7% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.689 | 94.0% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.103 | 99.9% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
22.712 | 45.3% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
22.487 | 61.8% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
22.444 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
22.266 | 84.3% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.872 | 99.9% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
21.867 | 98.9% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
21.827 | 63.7% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.492 | 99.9% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.421 | 99.9% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
21.414 | 95.7% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
21.214 | 99.9% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
20.706 | 97.5% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
20.534 | 94.9% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
20.516 | 96.5% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
20.394 | 83.8% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
20.173 | 99.9% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
19.930 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
19.790 | 93.7% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
19.203 | 39.7% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
19.087 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
18.789 | 49.3% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
18.478 | 99.9% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
18.326 | 53.6% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
18.115 | 97.6% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.678 | 97.9% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.648 | 99.4% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
17.385 | 99.8% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.340 | 98.7% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
17.163 | 99.9% | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
16.785 | 99.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
16.617 | 99.9% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
16.597 | 96.6% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.183 | 95.5% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
16.121 | 92.8% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
15.916 | 83.9% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
15.515 | 90.8% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.034 | 63.4% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
14.828 | 57.0% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
14.580 | 100.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.739 | 95.6% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
13.705 | 99.2% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
13.629 | 99.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.593 | 99.9% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
13.481 | 99.9% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
13.422 | 98.0% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.150 | 88.0% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
13.074 | 93.8% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
12.993 | 59.4% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.767 | 95.7% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
12.721 | 99.9% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
12.605 | 97.4% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
11.905 | 84.8% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
11.807 | 99.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
11.752 | 97.7% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
11.700 | 93.5% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
11.432 | 99.7% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
11.266 | 13.8% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
10.966 | 95.7% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
10.664 | 98.0% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.482 | 93.1% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
10.268 | 96.0% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
10.088 | 92.5% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
9.895 | 92.3% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
9.798 | 99.9% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
9.754 | 99.7% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.331 | 98.7% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.306 | 99.6% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
9.225 | 88.7% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
9.146 | 65.7% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
9.119 | 29.0% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
8.695 | 99.0% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
8.508 | 99.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
8.174 | 94.5% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
8.052 | 98.4% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
7.961 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
7.913 | 57.8% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
7.811 | 91.3% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
7.461 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
7.417 | 51.2% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.391 | 96.2% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
7.207 | 9.1% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
7.125 | 67.9% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
7.112 | 94.2% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
7.054 | 42.5% | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
6.896 | 40.4% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
6.593 | 68.0% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
6.523 | 29.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
6.499 | 48.7% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
6.388 | 100.0% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
5.920 | 83.7% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
5.733 | 86.1% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
5.435 | 71.5% | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
5.396 | 29.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
5.316 | 44.4% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
5.264 | 20.6% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.166 | 99.0% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
5.010 | 99.5% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.967 | 90.9% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
4.873 | 29.4% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
4.594 | 99.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.476 | 62.8% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.474 | 90.4% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
4.286 | 86.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
4.205 | 96.2% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
4.039 | 99.2% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
4.012 | 95.7% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
4.011 | 13.0% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
3.962 | 92.9% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
3.635 | 66.7% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
3.546 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
3.537 | 29.2% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.520 | 83.0% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.472 | 66.0% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
3.458 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
3.415 | 27.2% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
3.378 | 38.9% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
3.339 | 48.4% | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
3.240 | 95.7% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
3.191 | 16.3% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
2.995 | 8.2% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
2.882 | 71.8% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
2.783 | 97.7% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
2.614 | 26.0% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
2.457 | 99.7% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.448 | 99.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
1.941 | 5.8% | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
1.906 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.904 | 99.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
1.885 | 97.5% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
1.852 | 73.7% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
1.824 | 99.3% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
1.807 | 13.5% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
1.657 | 98.0% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.571 | 72.4% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
1.554 | 93.3% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
1.423 | 37.3% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.395 | 99.9% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.390 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
1.390 | 85.0% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.360 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
1.288 | 49.0% | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
1.246 | 39.5% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.221 | 98.1% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
1.199 | 2.2% | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
1.117 | 97.2% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.056 | 52.5% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
0.930 | 9.3% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.899 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
0.885 | 29.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
0.772 | 41.9% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
0.730 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.609 | 1.2% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
0.505 | 99.2% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
0.485 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.435 | 97.9% | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
0.407 | 0.6% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.377 | 3.0% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
0.363 | 5.4% | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
0.337 | 96.3% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
0.277 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.238 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.205 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.183 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.180 | 66.1% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
0.179 | 0.2% | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | Binary |
0.153 | 45.7% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
0.135 | 84.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.067 | 92.4% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
-0.091 | 78.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
-0.120 | 1.6% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
-0.276 | 99.2% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.639 | 99.9% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
-0.935 | 99.0% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
-1.092 | 90.1% | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
-1.272 | 21.3% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-1.401 | 59.6% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
-2.152 | 99.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.368 | 13.6% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
-2.593 | 51.8% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
-2.843 | 75.2% | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
-2.916 | 89.1% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
-3.281 | 15.5% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
-4.467 | 98.7% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
-4.723 | 9.3% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.880 | 94.4% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-5.748 | 83.7% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
-5.786 | 97.3% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-5.839 | 98.7% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-6.619 | 89.0% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
-7.298 | 97.9% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-8.728 | 99.8% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
-8.775 | 52.1% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
-9.724 | 77.2% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
-9.908 | 90.8% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
-10.517 | 48.7% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
-10.720 | 94.6% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
-11.874 | 99.7% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
-12.023 | 96.7% | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
-12.323 | 72.9% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-12.970 | 97.6% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-16.853 | 75.6% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
-17.265 | 94.8% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-19.121 | 95.7% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
-19.322 | 93.3% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
-19.493 | 66.4% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
-19.853 | 64.5% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-21.880 | 97.4% | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-24.389 | 95.7% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
-25.692 | 93.5% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-25.903 | 99.8% | (closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-27.405 | 84.3% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-41.145 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-65.832 | 97.1% | After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus? | Multiple Choice |
-111.279 | 99.9% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |