86.137 | 99.9% | 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? | Binary |
69.449 | 35.6% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
68.921 | 94.6% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
68.655 | 99.9% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
62.016 | 100.0% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
61.867 | 99.9% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
57.605 | 68.8% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
56.903 | 100.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
55.376 | 98.1% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
54.976 | 99.9% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
54.544 | 99.7% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
53.009 | 100.0% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
52.095 | 98.1% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
51.074 | 99.8% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
49.730 | 99.7% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
49.125 | 90.9% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
47.323 | 99.9% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
46.961 | 99.5% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
46.553 | 90.1% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
46.272 | 99.6% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
45.300 | 92.6% | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
45.073 | 95.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
42.796 | 100.0% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
42.691 | 99.6% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
42.387 | 100.0% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
41.492 | 97.9% | What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election? | Continuous |
41.371 | 100.0% | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
40.991 | 98.4% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
40.964 | 99.8% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
40.577 | 98.7% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
40.316 | 99.9% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
39.853 | 86.0% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
38.916 | 97.5% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
37.861 | 99.8% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
37.821 | 97.4% | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
37.716 | 99.9% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.672 | 99.6% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
37.639 | 93.5% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.225 | 96.7% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
36.848 | 99.8% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
36.487 | 79.1% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
36.471 | 97.4% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
36.232 | 99.5% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
35.310 | 89.7% | Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May? | Binary |
35.234 | 100.0% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
33.726 | 99.7% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
33.373 | 99.9% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
33.012 | 100.0% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
32.745 | 99.8% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
30.989 | 100.0% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
30.052 | 99.7% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.870 | 95.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
29.487 | 100.0% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
28.962 | 99.8% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
28.674 | 95.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
28.034 | 93.9% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
27.754 | 99.5% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
27.386 | 99.8% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.324 | 65.1% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.001 | 100.0% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
26.493 | 99.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
26.229 | 96.0% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
25.706 | 48.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
25.521 | 96.7% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
25.414 | 99.3% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
24.967 | 97.1% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.961 | 99.5% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
24.874 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
24.413 | 92.0% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
24.380 | 100.0% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
24.104 | 83.9% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
23.974 | 32.0% | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
23.423 | 92.9% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
23.354 | 99.6% | (closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
22.624 | 63.4% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
22.150 | 100.0% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
21.968 | 100.0% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
21.942 | 99.5% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.828 | 100.0% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
21.723 | 98.5% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.512 | 99.2% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
21.453 | 99.8% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
21.391 | 99.9% | How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year? | Multiple Choice |
21.244 | 98.9% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
20.806 | 97.1% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
20.770 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
20.716 | 99.5% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
20.341 | 99.5% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
19.991 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
19.764 | 89.6% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
19.306 | 100.0% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
19.224 | 99.9% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
19.082 | 99.1% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
19.060 | 99.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.010 | 99.2% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
18.452 | 99.8% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
18.429 | 99.4% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
17.714 | 99.6% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
17.682 | 99.9% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
17.329 | 60.6% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
17.138 | 95.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
16.837 | 99.2% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
16.587 | 99.7% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
16.474 | 99.8% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
16.403 | 58.0% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
15.898 | 77.8% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
15.848 | 33.1% | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
15.646 | 100.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
15.566 | 92.1% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
15.440 | 99.8% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
15.025 | 99.5% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
14.739 | 99.9% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
14.201 | 95.0% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
14.075 | 60.8% | Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024? | Binary |
14.007 | 100.0% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
13.903 | 100.0% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
13.791 | 99.9% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.713 | 81.8% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
13.692 | 96.5% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on November 8, 2024? | Continuous |
13.432 | 100.0% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
13.390 | 97.1% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
13.233 | 97.7% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
13.174 | 83.5% | ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Oct 2024) | Binary |
13.068 | 96.5% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
12.581 | 70.8% | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
12.569 | 99.8% | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
12.435 | 99.9% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.373 | 33.1% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
12.153 | 25.8% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
12.149 | 99.8% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
11.984 | 29.2% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
11.446 | 99.9% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.384 | 99.9% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
11.373 | 99.8% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
10.988 | 70.0% | Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024? | Binary |
10.922 | 97.7% | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
10.762 | 54.6% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
10.626 | 99.4% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
10.515 | 98.2% | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
10.433 | 99.4% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
10.345 | 95.6% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
10.233 | 92.5% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
10.160 | 99.8% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.091 | 99.7% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
10.017 | 99.7% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
9.655 | 100.0% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
9.472 | 84.5% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
9.234 | 97.5% | EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025) | Continuous |
9.036 | 99.7% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
8.849 | 69.6% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
8.844 | 93.9% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
8.706 | 45.5% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
8.493 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
7.928 | 100.0% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
7.817 | 99.8% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
7.737 | 99.9% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.711 | 99.0% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
7.649 | 99.6% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
7.024 | 94.9% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
6.600 | 99.6% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
6.384 | 99.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.248 | 98.0% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.230 | 100.0% | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
6.173 | 99.9% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.142 | 95.6% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.118 | 99.3% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
5.827 | 99.9% | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
5.730 | 99.4% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
5.560 | 30.9% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
5.220 | 99.0% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
4.981 | 21.0% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
4.904 | 99.9% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.778 | 19.9% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
4.757 | 45.9% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
4.745 | 99.9% | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
4.708 | 99.5% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.641 | 40.0% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.463 | 100.0% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
4.129 | 99.9% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
4.086 | 100.0% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
3.926 | 92.9% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.905 | 89.2% | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
3.667 | 97.8% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.398 | 95.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
3.028 | 99.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
2.886 | 14.1% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
2.839 | 11.2% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.188 | 95.4% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
1.912 | 60.2% | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
1.499 | 86.7% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
1.459 | 82.9% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
1.159 | 98.7% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.121 | 96.1% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.117 | 95.4% | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
1.052 | 99.4% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.989 | 62.5% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.886 | 2.3% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
0.869 | 99.8% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.789 | 92.8% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
0.550 | 96.4% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
0.547 | 0.6% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.492 | 96.0% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.485 | 98.2% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
0.439 | 99.7% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.394 | 99.8% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
0.334 | 40.3% | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
0.163 | 5.9% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
0.137 | 99.8% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
0.021 | 0.0% | Trump guilty in Manhattan by Election Day (Yes) → Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? | Binary |
0.001 | 60.4% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
- | 36.5% | How many seats will each party win in Cambodia's senate elections on February 25, 2024? (Cambodian People's Party) | Continuous |
- | 31.3% | How many seats will each party win in Cambodia's senate elections on February 25, 2024? (Khmer Will Party) | Continuous |
- | 31.3% | How many seats will each party win in Cambodia's senate elections on February 25, 2024? (FUNCIPEC) | Continuous |
- | 31.3% | How many seats will each party win in Cambodia's senate elections on February 25, 2024? (Nation Power Party) | Continuous |
-0.027 | 1.3% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-0.058 | 98.1% | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
-0.257 | 10.0% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.286 | 96.8% | [Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII? | Binary |
-0.611 | 63.2% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.680 | 22.3% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Apr. 30, '24) | Continuous |
-1.092 | 0.6% | [Short Fuse] When will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike end for the Port of New York and New Jersey? | Continuous |
-1.125 | 95.9% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-1.655 | 99.8% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
-2.275 | 40.0% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.496 | 100.0% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
-2.777 | 98.6% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
-3.085 | 39.3% | Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-3.444 | 100.0% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
-3.615 | 56.5% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (May 31, '24) | Continuous |
-4.372 | 26.9% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-4.537 | 99.9% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
-4.555 | 98.2% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
-4.590 | 99.8% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
-4.656 | 99.8% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-5.139 | 53.5% | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
-5.465 | 14.5% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-5.597 | 98.3% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-5.719 | 44.6% | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | Binary |
-6.283 | 99.5% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
-6.617 | 99.7% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
-6.807 | 97.5% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
-6.934 | 99.0% | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
-7.025 | 99.8% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-7.546 | 37.4% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-7.676 | 94.3% | [Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
-7.789 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-7.864 | 99.7% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
-8.037 | 93.0% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-8.234 | 99.8% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
-8.461 | 98.7% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-8.768 | 45.1% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-10.623 | 62.8% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jul. 31, '24) | Continuous |
-11.580 | 98.9% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
-12.149 | 98.7% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-13.709 | 100.0% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
-13.996 | 99.8% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
-14.052 | 100.0% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
-14.611 | 71.9% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jun. 29, '24) | Continuous |
-17.718 | 33.4% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-18.378 | 99.7% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
-19.241 | 100.0% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
-20.119 | 99.9% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
-21.960 | 99.4% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
-22.436 | 9.1% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-22.550 | 98.9% | Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award? | Multiple Choice |
-22.791 | 42.1% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
-23.204 | 99.9% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
-25.580 | 89.6% | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
-26.078 | 99.7% | Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections? | Binary |
-26.514 | 92.4% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
-26.891 | 98.8% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
-27.087 | 99.9% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-27.546 | 60.1% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
-28.398 | 98.7% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
-28.505 | 61.9% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
-29.063 | 94.4% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-30.914 | 95.9% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
-35.193 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-49.582 | 99.2% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
-56.606 | 99.4% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
-144.817 | 52.5% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
-148.298 | 97.7% | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |