117.275 | 99.7% | 2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election? | Binary |
107.837 | 99.7% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
83.919 | 99.7% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
72.924 | 99.7% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
71.893 | 97.7% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
68.161 | 94.1% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
66.439 | 92.6% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
63.074 | 98.5% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
58.921 | 99.0% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
58.161 | 99.8% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
57.474 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
56.117 | 81.4% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
55.997 | 99.8% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
55.896 | 98.0% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
55.639 | 81.4% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
54.420 | 89.8% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
53.504 | 99.9% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
53.128 | 100.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
51.755 | 83.6% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
51.391 | 98.6% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
48.340 | 99.9% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
47.462 | 99.9% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
46.176 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
45.145 | 97.1% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
44.279 | 100.0% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
44.261 | 96.6% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
43.854 | 99.8% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
43.520 | 93.2% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
43.481 | 98.6% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
43.315 | 98.6% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
42.810 | 93.8% | Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? | Binary |
42.764 | 98.6% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
42.658 | 95.3% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
42.357 | 99.4% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
42.233 | 100.0% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
42.033 | 91.5% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
41.096 | 98.6% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
41.068 | 72.4% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
39.996 | 63.3% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
39.853 | 80.2% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
38.793 | 99.1% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
38.758 | 59.9% | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
38.641 | 33.1% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
37.862 | 92.9% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.704 | 99.2% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.504 | 98.7% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
37.364 | 77.3% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
36.676 | 98.1% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
36.519 | 89.4% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
35.396 | 99.3% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
35.164 | 100.0% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
34.851 | 98.5% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
34.789 | 100.0% | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
34.097 | 99.9% | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
32.914 | 98.7% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
32.876 | 52.9% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
32.602 | 98.6% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
31.918 | 99.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
31.650 | 99.2% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
31.086 | 99.9% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
30.780 | 98.9% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
30.695 | 95.4% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
30.616 | 95.8% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
29.920 | 98.4% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.252 | 97.8% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
29.035 | 97.7% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.505 | 99.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
28.471 | 98.4% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
28.357 | 98.6% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
28.033 | 99.9% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
27.702 | 91.1% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.653 | 91.3% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
27.144 | 97.5% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
27.103 | 99.0% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
26.956 | 60.2% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
26.412 | 98.2% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
25.245 | 74.0% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
25.127 | 90.8% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
23.845 | 99.5% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
23.421 | 85.6% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
22.870 | 98.7% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
22.696 | 100.0% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.437 | 99.9% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.955 | 99.3% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.686 | 98.9% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
21.617 | 37.8% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.495 | 99.1% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
20.869 | 99.6% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
20.518 | 98.6% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
20.220 | 85.4% | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
19.255 | 96.3% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
19.044 | 99.3% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
18.889 | 65.0% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.818 | 98.0% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
18.770 | 95.1% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
18.740 | 93.3% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
18.631 | 97.3% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
18.328 | 44.7% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.218 | 76.9% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
17.653 | 99.4% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
17.081 | 99.5% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
16.985 | 98.6% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
16.435 | 87.3% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
16.134 | 99.9% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
15.813 | 99.3% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
15.430 | 57.9% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
15.268 | 98.6% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
15.003 | 95.7% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
14.837 | 97.7% | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
14.778 | 52.2% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
14.481 | 92.9% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
14.179 | 99.6% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.095 | 99.1% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
13.824 | 99.1% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.786 | 99.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
13.704 | 99.7% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
13.642 | 97.9% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.435 | 98.1% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
13.226 | 83.9% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
13.124 | 97.4% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
12.374 | 99.5% | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
12.260 | 94.9% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
12.072 | 100.0% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
11.689 | 99.7% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.660 | 99.8% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.569 | 94.5% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
11.300 | 99.8% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
10.944 | 60.1% | Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024? | Binary |
10.819 | 98.6% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
10.657 | 92.0% | EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025) | Continuous |
10.300 | 60.0% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
9.916 | 98.5% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
9.814 | 39.6% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
9.771 | 28.7% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
9.557 | 88.9% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
9.410 | 92.5% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
9.377 | 98.6% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
9.240 | 99.5% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
8.975 | 21.3% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
8.974 | 44.4% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
8.705 | 99.6% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.689 | 97.0% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.426 | 96.1% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
8.357 | 99.5% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
8.160 | 99.6% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.062 | 98.1% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
7.822 | 98.7% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.141 | 94.9% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
7.007 | 99.3% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
6.610 | 98.7% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.559 | 99.5% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
6.312 | 99.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.774 | 84.4% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
5.749 | 99.1% | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
5.696 | 99.4% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
5.149 | 52.9% | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
5.144 | 21.1% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
4.970 | 10.0% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.523 | 99.4% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
4.483 | 99.9% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
4.466 | 97.6% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.204 | 95.0% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
4.083 | 22.0% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
3.921 | 45.1% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
3.817 | 99.6% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.558 | 13.9% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
2.914 | 93.9% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
2.725 | 95.3% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
2.674 | 37.4% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.368 | 97.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
2.223 | 70.2% | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
2.165 | 81.3% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
2.087 | 99.3% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
1.582 | 94.0% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.503 | 13.9% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
1.281 | 96.7% | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
1.276 | 19.4% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
1.124 | 1.9% | Trump guilty in Manhattan by Election Day (Yes) → Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? | Binary |
0.867 | 87.8% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
0.464 | 97.2% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
0.385 | 14.8% | 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? | Binary |
-0.931 | 97.1% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.441 | 3.4% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
-1.651 | 97.8% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.781 | 99.7% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
-2.114 | 99.3% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
-2.115 | 97.1% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
-2.383 | 93.4% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
-3.249 | 9.1% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-3.512 | 99.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.700 | 99.9% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
-5.965 | 27.7% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
-6.844 | 95.5% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
-7.039 | 41.9% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
-7.452 | 31.9% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
-8.392 | 5.6% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
-8.509 | 99.7% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
-9.790 | 87.1% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
-11.923 | 97.4% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
-13.172 | 33.4% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-14.675 | 83.0% | FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak? | Continuous |
-15.210 | 99.5% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
-15.246 | 98.7% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-17.205 | 94.3% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-25.595 | 95.5% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-28.539 | 63.0% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-28.988 | 48.6% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-39.094 | 60.5% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
-41.593 | 98.4% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
-44.625 | 59.3% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
-48.403 | 99.1% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
-48.489 | 94.7% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
-52.090 | 92.8% | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-63.839 | 57.3% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
-63.911 | 45.7% | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
-71.160 | 99.5% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
-77.524 | 40.7% | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
-87.837 | 98.1% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-96.766 | 61.8% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-98.371 | 99.9% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |