161.431 | 99.9% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
88.364 | 98.4% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
67.347 | 98.0% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
64.608 | 99.6% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
57.094 | 98.6% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
54.571 | 100.0% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
53.109 | 95.5% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
49.842 | 96.8% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
49.791 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
48.191 | 98.1% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
47.856 | 89.9% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
46.074 | 95.5% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
43.341 | 98.2% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
41.453 | 99.9% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.813 | 95.5% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
38.551 | 52.7% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
38.060 | 95.1% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
36.316 | 99.9% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
35.832 | 95.5% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
35.013 | 99.0% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
34.532 | 73.7% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
34.444 | 98.8% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
34.160 | 99.6% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
34.055 | 99.8% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
33.490 | 88.1% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
33.018 | 95.5% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
32.035 | 99.2% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
31.361 | 95.5% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
29.926 | 95.5% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
29.829 | 95.5% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
29.798 | 95.4% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
29.272 | 95.3% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
28.450 | 95.5% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
28.295 | 89.2% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
28.285 | 97.6% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
27.474 | 59.7% | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
27.284 | 95.5% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
26.332 | 86.0% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
26.171 | 99.0% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
25.588 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
25.284 | 100.0% | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
24.350 | 99.9% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
24.267 | 95.5% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
23.336 | 57.6% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
23.113 | 95.5% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
22.370 | 99.5% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
22.348 | 90.5% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.639 | 95.4% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
21.357 | 99.7% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
21.199 | 95.5% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
20.868 | 99.9% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.470 | 99.3% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.381 | 95.5% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
19.957 | 95.1% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
19.859 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
19.754 | 45.4% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
19.564 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
19.420 | 95.5% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
18.616 | 99.7% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
18.084 | 57.4% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
18.040 | 99.5% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
16.048 | 99.6% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.996 | 100.0% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
15.747 | 94.7% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
14.383 | 99.4% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
14.133 | 95.5% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
13.884 | 99.9% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.573 | 99.2% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
13.313 | 99.2% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
13.182 | 95.5% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
13.057 | 99.9% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
12.919 | 99.9% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
12.874 | 100.0% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
12.537 | 46.1% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
12.436 | 99.7% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.376 | 99.9% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
12.111 | 43.4% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
11.520 | 99.8% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.501 | 98.6% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
11.426 | 99.9% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
11.256 | 99.7% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.123 | 99.8% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
10.945 | 95.5% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
10.816 | 99.9% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.692 | 99.7% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
10.630 | 95.5% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
10.546 | 99.8% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.465 | 34.0% | 2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election? | Binary |
9.983 | 95.5% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
9.320 | 16.9% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
8.365 | 100.0% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.145 | 99.6% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.934 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
7.801 | 99.9% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
7.582 | 95.9% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
7.419 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
6.687 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
6.631 | 13.7% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
6.465 | 99.3% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
6.301 | 31.2% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
6.000 | 40.0% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.705 | 95.5% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.679 | 97.2% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
5.619 | 78.6% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
5.073 | 89.9% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
5.040 | 99.1% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
4.779 | 99.1% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
4.412 | 98.4% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
4.014 | 88.7% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
4.003 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
3.991 | 99.8% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.828 | 99.2% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.558 | 97.7% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.305 | 94.0% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
3.267 | 33.4% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.150 | 95.5% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
2.876 | 94.2% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
2.660 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
2.434 | 99.7% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.388 | 59.8% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
2.316 | 99.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
2.289 | 13.8% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
2.044 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
2.040 | 17.2% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
2.031 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.802 | 99.8% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
1.795 | 9.0% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
1.659 | 99.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
1.438 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
1.425 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
0.920 | 5.9% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
0.853 | 97.6% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.798 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.739 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.585 | 44.9% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
0.565 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.455 | 99.1% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
0.429 | 15.8% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
0.409 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.364 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.295 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.295 | 78.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.276 | 83.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-0.025 | 0.1% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.099 | 25.9% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
-0.455 | 99.3% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-0.591 | 100.0% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
-0.734 | 99.8% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.854 | 43.2% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
-1.079 | 38.9% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-1.410 | 100.0% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-3.209 | 97.3% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
-4.243 | 99.5% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
-4.370 | 100.0% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
-6.987 | 96.7% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
-8.880 | 98.9% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
-18.577 | 98.4% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
-33.901 | 92.6% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
-85.091 | 93.9% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |