Duration:1 year
Time Period:2025
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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49.64
Weighted Average Score
ScoreCoverageQuestionQuestion Type
146.39993.9%How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?Continuous
143.02598.9%Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?Continuous
142.36999.5%What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?Continuous
142.04397.9%What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?Continuous
128.11998.1%How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?Continuous
122.87898.7%How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?Multiple Choice
122.33198.9%How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)Continuous
119.46898.8%What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?Continuous
118.72197.4%What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?Continuous
97.64898.0%What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?Continuous
94.83596.5%What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?Continuous
94.39081.6%What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?Continuous
91.75896.3%What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?Continuous
89.22098.9%What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?Continuous
84.07899.1%What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?Continuous
81.71699.0%What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?Continuous
81.61399.6%How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?Multiple Choice
81.04390.3%How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?Continuous
75.50397.7%What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?Continuous
74.13594.2%Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?Continuous
73.55899.0%On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)Continuous
72.55598.5%Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?Multiple Choice
71.82695.6%Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?Binary
71.18299.9%Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?Binary
70.45198.7%Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?Binary
67.67895.1%How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)Continuous
67.48694.8%How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?Continuous
67.39197.3%How many parties will be in the next German parliament?Multiple Choice
65.905100.0%Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?Multiple Choice
64.05999.2%What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?Continuous
63.40597.8%What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?Continuous
60.89795.8%What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?Multiple Choice
60.62898.4%What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?Continuous
58.90395.9%What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?Continuous
56.99197.3%Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?Multiple Choice
56.79494.9%What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?Continuous
56.41199.0%On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)Continuous
56.11599.1%What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?Continuous
55.35096.1%How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?Multiple Choice
54.688100.0%Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?Binary
50.83793.3%What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?Continuous
50.42198.6%Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?Binary
47.46699.1%What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?Multiple Choice
44.45899.2%Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?Binary
40.31499.5%How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?Continuous
39.33099.0%Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?Binary
38.78898.4%Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?Binary
38.39399.9%Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?Binary
38.17254.0%Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?Binary
36.20799.7%What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?Continuous
30.10894.7%How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?Multiple Choice
29.16985.8%What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?Continuous
27.41983.8%What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)Continuous
26.80499.3%What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?Multiple Choice
25.95199.0%Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?Binary
25.80197.2%Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?Binary
25.54387.9%What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)Continuous
25.525100.0%What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?Continuous
25.20458.6%What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?Multiple Choice
24.37398.4%How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?Continuous
23.30093.2%What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?Continuous
22.75575.4%What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)Continuous
22.40299.0%Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?Binary
22.29399.2%What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?Continuous
21.47394.2%Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?Binary
19.71498.7%Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?Binary
19.12199.1%Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?Binary
18.62531.0%How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?Continuous
17.71596.4%What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?Continuous
17.55091.4%Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?Binary
17.16299.0%When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?Multiple Choice
16.77997.1%How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)Continuous
16.11999.1%What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?Multiple Choice
15.94785.8%Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?Multiple Choice
14.64899.2%How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?Continuous
14.20496.6%What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?Multiple Choice
14.08099.9%Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?Multiple Choice
13.26099.9%Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?Binary
11.63818.0%Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))Binary
10.42898.3%What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?Continuous
10.04999.9%Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?Binary
9.59999.2%By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?Multiple Choice
9.37016.3%Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))Binary
8.34699.5%Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?Multiple Choice
4.66213.1%Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?Binary
3.19698.2%Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?Binary
2.12811.8%Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?Binary
1.80511.2%Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?Binary
1.15110.9%Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?Binary
0.91695.8%Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?Binary
0.8141.8%Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?Binary
0.54327.3%Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?Binary
0.54090.8%Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?Binary
0.4390.6%Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025?Binary
0.29498.5%Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?Binary
-0.4135.4%Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?Binary
-1.26419.9%Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?Binary
-2.92590.8%Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?Binary
-4.28895.9%Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?Binary
-6.53766.2%Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?Binary
-6.82993.1%[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?Continuous
-17.08294.5%Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?Binary
-33.23635.2%Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?Binary
-53.24894.1%Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))Binary

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