jimmyred

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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3.281	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
61.631	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
42.955	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
33.231	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
31.363	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
28.250	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
27.372	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
25.913	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
25.091	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
24.312	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
21.693	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
21.279	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
20.795	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
18.909	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
18.082	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
17.571	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
17.069	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
15.933	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
15.072	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
14.892	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.555	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.539	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
13.760	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
13.574	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
12.486	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.925	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
11.541	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
11.152	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
10.828	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
10.761	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
10.388	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.181	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
10.093	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
9.877	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.933	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.463	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
8.353	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
8.351	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
8.344	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.186	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
8.049	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
7.998	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
7.812	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
7.668	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
7.351	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
7.207	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
6.571	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
6.403	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.240	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
6.005	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
5.820	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
5.798	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.466	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.378	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
5.291	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
4.944	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
4.940	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.817	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
4.618	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
4.606	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
4.475	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
4.416	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
4.349	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.078	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
3.793	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.756	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
3.694	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.604	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
3.226	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
3.092	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
2.996	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
2.470	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.438	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
2.333	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.161	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.058	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
1.943	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
1.923	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
1.898	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
1.826	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
1.823	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
1.768	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
1.735	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
1.733	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
1.700	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
1.652	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.651	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
1.389	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
1.385	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
1.276	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.121	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
1.041	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
1.025	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
0.971	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.828	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
0.785	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
0.728	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.668	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
0.632	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
0.585	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.574	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.559	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.557	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.552	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.550	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.543	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.537	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.533	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.510	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
0.507	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
0.506	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.498	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
0.496	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.421	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
0.219	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
0.195	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.105	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
0.101	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.008	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-0.027	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.054	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
-0.458	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
-0.716	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
-0.762	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
-0.783	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
-0.896	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
-1.095	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
-1.441	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
-1.550	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
-1.935	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.095	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
-2.520	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
-2.884	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-3.435	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-4.443	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
-4.816	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
-6.587	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
-6.644	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
-7.125	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-7.646	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-8.010	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
-8.950	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-10.837	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
-12.126	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
-14.466	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-16.649	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-17.488	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
-19.730	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
-21.868	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-25.816	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
-28.987	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
-38.211	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-39.459	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-43.845	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
-44.068	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary