114.812 | 97.8% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
97.587 | 99.8% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
91.504 | 99.8% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
90.756 | 99.8% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
83.678 | 98.1% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
76.858 | 98.8% | What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election? | Continuous |
74.580 | 99.8% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
73.261 | 97.8% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
69.009 | 96.1% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
67.701 | 69.1% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
65.751 | 90.0% | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
64.524 | 69.2% | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
57.752 | 77.9% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
57.210 | 92.2% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
56.727 | 43.5% | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
56.033 | 34.3% | How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
55.239 | 99.6% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
54.197 | 90.4% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
54.120 | 97.9% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
53.604 | 99.7% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
51.923 | 78.6% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
51.534 | 99.3% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
51.287 | 99.9% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
50.010 | 96.6% | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
49.455 | 99.3% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
48.674 | 95.3% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
47.576 | 88.9% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
47.035 | 99.6% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
46.704 | 99.8% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
45.706 | 99.7% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
45.142 | 94.8% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland? | Multiple Choice |
44.560 | 96.2% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
43.671 | 99.3% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
43.135 | 99.7% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
42.941 | 99.2% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
42.160 | 99.2% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
41.255 | 99.6% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
40.969 | 99.8% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
40.644 | 68.8% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
39.940 | 98.8% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
39.196 | 69.2% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
39.119 | 99.8% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.910 | 97.9% | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
38.670 | 99.5% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.588 | 99.3% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
38.539 | 99.8% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
38.502 | 63.0% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.853 | 96.4% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
37.155 | 90.3% | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
36.985 | 98.2% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
36.795 | 80.1% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
36.727 | 90.9% | What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
36.584 | 99.6% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
35.770 | 82.3% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
35.613 | 99.2% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
35.209 | 97.8% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
34.790 | 99.9% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
34.773 | 97.0% | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
34.636 | 99.6% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
34.308 | 92.0% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland? | Multiple Choice |
34.167 | 44.7% | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
33.948 | 59.9% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
33.941 | 98.8% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
33.858 | 96.3% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
33.682 | 99.9% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
32.810 | 98.5% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
32.794 | 99.9% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
32.502 | 95.0% | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
32.333 | 99.9% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
32.322 | 54.0% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
32.242 | 100.0% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
31.805 | 99.7% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay) | Binary |
31.705 | 94.9% | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
31.327 | 99.8% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
31.000 | 98.6% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
30.820 | 99.6% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
30.251 | 96.7% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
29.746 | 99.1% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
29.005 | 99.9% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
28.760 | 98.8% | How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior? | Continuous |
28.281 | 94.8% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
27.817 | 98.2% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
27.761 | 99.8% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
27.500 | 68.8% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris) | Continuous |
27.291 | 91.2% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
27.138 | 83.2% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
27.016 | 99.5% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
26.929 | 99.8% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
26.364 | 99.6% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
25.951 | 84.0% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
25.924 | 99.6% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
25.816 | 78.2% | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
25.536 | 98.9% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
25.343 | 99.0% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
25.249 | 54.4% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
25.106 | 99.6% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
24.727 | 54.5% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
24.670 | 22.5% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
24.610 | 99.3% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
24.441 | 98.7% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
24.370 | 48.5% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
23.838 | 93.4% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
23.768 | 99.2% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
23.743 | 93.2% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
23.708 | 57.9% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
23.438 | 96.4% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
23.282 | 73.8% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
23.264 | 98.5% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
22.779 | 99.8% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
22.747 | 99.5% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
22.561 | 98.6% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
22.454 | 45.4% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
22.300 | 99.8% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
21.903 | 99.7% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.900 | 99.6% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.898 | 73.7% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
21.797 | 44.9% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.682 | 94.1% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
21.682 | 94.6% | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
21.365 | 99.3% | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | Binary |
21.335 | 99.8% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
21.187 | 81.3% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
21.105 | 99.1% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
21.059 | 100.0% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.011 | 99.5% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
20.969 | 99.5% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
20.684 | 63.5% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.488 | 93.7% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.248 | 89.5% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
20.116 | 92.2% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
20.103 | 99.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.036 | 96.2% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
19.552 | 99.5% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
19.472 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
19.449 | 99.4% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
19.068 | 92.4% | Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May? | Binary |
19.056 | 100.0% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
19.005 | 99.9% | What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024? | Continuous |
18.994 | 99.6% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
18.767 | 94.3% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
18.160 | 99.8% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
18.072 | 99.9% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
17.812 | 52.6% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia) | Binary |
17.789 | 99.8% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
17.705 | 100.0% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
17.639 | 99.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.519 | 90.5% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
17.308 | 90.5% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.957 | 98.4% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
16.909 | 98.7% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
16.787 | 65.0% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.785 | 39.5% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
16.694 | 92.6% | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024) | Continuous |
16.595 | 89.4% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.590 | 97.5% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.309 | 87.8% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
15.962 | 98.8% | Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate? | Binary |
15.927 | 70.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
15.847 | 99.6% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
15.769 | 99.5% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
15.692 | 97.8% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
15.666 | 64.4% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
15.372 | 54.8% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
15.193 | 96.1% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
15.091 | 99.0% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
15.071 | 72.6% | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
14.973 | 83.6% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
14.971 | 53.6% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
14.955 | 45.6% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
14.699 | 99.5% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
14.489 | 99.9% | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
14.178 | 43.3% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
14.142 | 96.7% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
14.072 | 99.6% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
13.694 | 99.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
13.634 | 96.2% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.587 | 95.1% | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
13.328 | 99.8% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
13.297 | 96.7% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
13.266 | 99.7% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress) | Binary |
12.862 | 99.5% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
12.752 | 91.5% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
12.674 | 27.8% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
12.653 | 89.8% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
12.616 | 84.1% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
12.529 | 53.6% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
12.521 | 91.4% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
12.305 | 90.5% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
12.299 | 99.8% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
12.151 | 99.7% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.043 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
11.978 | 63.2% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
11.829 | 98.8% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.720 | 99.4% | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
11.716 | 98.6% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
11.408 | 81.7% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
11.361 | 99.6% | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
10.878 | 93.4% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
10.640 | 80.1% | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
10.203 | 31.5% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
10.113 | 99.7% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture) | Binary |
10.000 | 98.9% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
9.998 | 99.1% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.953 | 54.8% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
9.847 | 98.3% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
9.794 | 62.3% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
9.460 | 99.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
9.160 | 84.9% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
9.034 | 99.1% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
8.956 | 92.4% | Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
8.900 | 99.7% | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director) | Binary |
8.892 | 99.3% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
8.825 | 98.0% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.767 | 70.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
8.694 | 74.2% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.604 | 53.4% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
8.472 | 97.3% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
8.406 | 97.5% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
8.086 | 65.9% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.059 | 92.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (uMkhonto we Sizwe) | Continuous |
7.697 | 52.0% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (November 2024) | Continuous |
7.678 | 98.6% | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
7.676 | 97.9% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
7.560 | 21.5% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1) | Binary |
7.483 | 97.4% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
7.481 | 99.5% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
7.323 | 88.7% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
7.232 | 99.0% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.141 | 99.8% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
6.999 | 48.8% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (October 2024) | Continuous |
6.672 | 70.9% | [Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
6.461 | 11.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
6.423 | 99.1% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
6.260 | 99.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.141 | 99.9% | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
6.136 | 99.8% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.821 | 96.8% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
5.763 | 95.7% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
5.744 | 98.6% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.721 | 79.0% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
5.265 | 98.8% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
5.182 | 21.2% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
5.057 | 15.7% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
5.046 | 65.2% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan? | Multiple Choice |
4.909 | 11.0% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
4.827 | 36.9% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024) | Continuous |
4.520 | 98.7% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
4.287 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
4.214 | 97.1% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
3.911 | 97.9% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
3.816 | 16.5% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (August 2024) | Continuous |
3.749 | 99.5% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.712 | 69.6% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
3.686 | 98.2% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
3.680 | 100.0% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
3.656 | 99.9% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
3.528 | 94.3% | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
3.390 | 84.4% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
2.901 | 36.2% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (September 2024) | Continuous |
2.742 | 96.1% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.666 | 99.8% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
2.636 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
2.636 | 98.7% | FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak? | Continuous |
2.446 | 99.6% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
2.444 | 61.7% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
2.321 | 59.1% | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
2.231 | 32.5% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
2.205 | 13.6% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
2.114 | 91.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Inkatha Freedom Party) | Continuous |
1.962 | 99.8% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.886 | 44.5% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
1.883 | 94.0% | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
1.870 | 94.1% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
1.787 | 69.7% | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
1.265 | 27.5% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.770 | 3.8% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
0.767 | 99.8% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.587 | 2.9% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
0.211 | 95.1% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau? | Multiple Choice |
0.161 | 96.8% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
0.100 | 1.0% | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.096 | 91.1% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
-0.001 | 10.5% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
-0.263 | 14.2% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
-0.425 | 6.0% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.431 | 99.8% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
-0.446 | 1.8% | [Short Fuse] When will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike end for the Port of New York and New Jersey? | Continuous |
-1.800 | 36.4% | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | Binary |
-1.811 | 99.7% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
-2.081 | 84.3% | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
-2.338 | 93.5% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia? | Multiple Choice |
-2.443 | 92.2% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
-2.796 | 84.9% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
-2.798 | 8.7% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-2.972 | 92.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Economic Freedom Fighters) | Continuous |
-3.170 | 96.5% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-3.590 | 92.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (African National Congress) | Continuous |
-3.763 | 96.6% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
-5.381 | 94.0% | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Indian Nat.Development Inclusive All. (INDIA)) | Continuous |
-5.654 | 95.7% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-6.659 | 6.5% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-7.808 | 95.9% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-7.846 | 39.5% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-7.957 | 92.9% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Democratic Alliance) | Continuous |
-8.653 | 99.2% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
-8.902 | 73.5% | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
-9.852 | 98.5% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
-9.936 | 97.8% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
-10.874 | 53.6% | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
-11.206 | 40.3% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-11.357 | 97.0% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
-13.175 | 99.4% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-13.857 | 44.9% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-14.482 | 37.3% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-14.682 | 98.8% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-14.928 | 99.3% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-18.370 | 99.6% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-19.433 | 12.7% | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
-22.391 | 91.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Other parties and independents) | Continuous |
-26.296 | 99.4% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
-37.188 | 99.0% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-45.679 | 68.8% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Continuous |
-50.050 | 51.5% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-54.086 | 99.9% | Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? | Binary |
-55.411 | 99.4% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
-61.484 | 95.5% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
-73.370 | 94.0% | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (National Democratic Alliance (NDA)) | Continuous |
-116.371 | 99.1% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |