67.739 | 68.4% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
61.596 | 98.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
58.663 | 98.9% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
57.984 | 100.0% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
54.785 | 97.4% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
54.409 | 99.5% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
52.366 | 99.5% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
50.863 | 99.8% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
45.927 | 98.9% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
45.914 | 73.6% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
45.859 | 98.9% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
43.878 | 98.9% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
41.740 | 99.4% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
41.353 | 31.6% | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
40.130 | 98.9% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
39.778 | 99.9% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
36.631 | 94.9% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
36.064 | 95.3% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
35.563 | 88.8% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
34.592 | 98.5% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
33.673 | 62.0% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
33.552 | 89.4% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.188 | 95.8% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
28.475 | 100.0% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
27.824 | 98.9% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
26.490 | 99.9% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
26.347 | 98.9% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
26.339 | 98.9% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
24.654 | 95.3% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
24.262 | 88.7% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
23.686 | 60.4% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
22.335 | 99.9% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
22.114 | 99.5% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
21.456 | 98.7% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
21.335 | 92.9% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
20.290 | 99.8% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.996 | 99.5% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
19.836 | 98.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
19.623 | 99.1% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
19.582 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
19.484 | 88.4% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
18.460 | 14.5% | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
17.784 | 47.9% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
17.596 | 98.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
17.532 | 98.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
16.624 | 67.7% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
16.468 | 94.8% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
16.138 | 97.8% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
16.119 | 99.0% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
15.743 | 97.9% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
15.439 | 99.2% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
14.757 | 98.9% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
14.375 | 54.5% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
14.116 | 92.9% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.085 | 98.8% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
12.836 | 99.9% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.624 | 99.5% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.466 | 99.3% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
12.020 | 99.7% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
11.783 | 74.8% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
11.719 | 98.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
11.457 | 98.9% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
11.372 | 32.0% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.361 | 60.8% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
11.294 | 99.3% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
10.190 | 98.9% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
8.536 | 82.3% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
8.148 | 98.9% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
7.604 | 98.3% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
7.502 | 99.0% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.497 | 22.2% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
7.448 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
7.420 | 14.1% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
7.185 | 7.7% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
6.910 | 39.6% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.765 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
6.177 | 98.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
6.119 | 4.1% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
6.102 | 96.1% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
6.003 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
5.939 | 99.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.853 | 20.3% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
5.831 | 91.2% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
5.789 | 99.2% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
5.637 | 99.3% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.404 | 99.1% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
5.314 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.168 | 46.8% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
4.920 | 99.3% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
4.912 | 9.2% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
4.910 | 100.0% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.336 | 100.0% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.252 | 99.9% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.952 | 100.0% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.901 | 92.8% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.881 | 61.1% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
3.789 | 99.8% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.598 | 99.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
3.445 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
3.353 | 98.8% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
2.158 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.225 | 99.6% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.714 | 2.3% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
0.122 | 46.9% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
0.082 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
0.072 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
-0.401 | 44.0% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
-1.029 | 99.1% | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
-1.608 | 29.2% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
-4.403 | 71.6% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
-6.083 | 59.5% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
-9.594 | 60.0% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-16.296 | 95.3% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
-19.836 | 82.3% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
-22.499 | 90.7% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
-27.780 | 44.1% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
-29.784 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
-43.519 | 95.3% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
-52.031 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
-55.523 | 93.7% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-61.986 | 99.1% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-93.710 | 91.9% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |