143.444 | 88.3% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
105.655 | 99.5% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
96.727 | 98.9% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
91.964 | 98.9% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
74.359 | 97.9% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
74.289 | 97.2% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
69.275 | 98.3% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
68.130 | 99.7% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
65.173 | 98.3% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
63.878 | 99.3% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
60.954 | 95.2% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
57.698 | 98.0% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
56.880 | 89.0% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
55.011 | 94.0% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
54.650 | 79.1% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
54.587 | 96.4% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
51.964 | 89.1% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
50.194 | 94.1% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
49.734 | 98.5% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
46.712 | 92.8% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
45.686 | 72.5% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
45.166 | 96.9% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
43.991 | 94.4% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
41.428 | 94.4% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
41.329 | 99.2% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
41.191 | 94.3% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
41.144 | 94.3% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
40.902 | 92.3% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
40.276 | 87.5% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
39.606 | 93.7% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
39.481 | 97.1% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
39.375 | 50.5% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
39.068 | 94.3% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.649 | 92.5% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
38.454 | 93.7% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
38.244 | 99.4% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
37.625 | 79.1% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
36.807 | 96.5% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
34.747 | 99.3% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
33.904 | 94.2% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
33.888 | 84.8% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
33.527 | 95.4% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
33.355 | 94.7% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
31.002 | 94.3% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
30.522 | 83.5% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
30.277 | 55.9% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
30.100 | 87.0% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
30.022 | 94.2% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
29.614 | 93.8% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
29.488 | 87.3% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
28.848 | 60.3% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
28.442 | 90.1% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
28.237 | 56.0% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
27.938 | 94.1% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
27.663 | 60.3% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
27.510 | 24.6% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
27.504 | 82.2% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
26.849 | 94.3% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
26.779 | 98.0% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
26.333 | 96.6% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
26.136 | 99.3% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
25.335 | 62.9% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
25.065 | 94.3% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
24.206 | 95.7% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
24.196 | 78.6% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
24.154 | 96.2% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.984 | 63.9% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
23.094 | 96.4% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.083 | 99.6% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
22.754 | 94.3% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
22.577 | 85.3% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.127 | 64.3% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.811 | 97.5% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.764 | 99.4% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
21.741 | 99.9% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.545 | 97.4% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
21.378 | 98.6% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
21.350 | 85.4% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
20.512 | 59.8% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
20.417 | 94.4% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.012 | 99.2% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.234 | 99.6% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
18.933 | 98.7% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
18.893 | 97.5% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
18.725 | 99.8% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.693 | 94.3% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
18.630 | 95.7% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.431 | 62.6% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.222 | 91.6% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
17.125 | 88.8% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
17.095 | 56.5% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
17.053 | 94.3% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
17.003 | 100.0% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
16.759 | 94.3% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
16.245 | 95.4% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
16.231 | 96.9% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
15.884 | 98.2% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
15.766 | 70.5% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
14.714 | 94.4% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
14.572 | 95.7% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
14.485 | 94.3% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
14.481 | 38.9% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
13.847 | 99.3% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
13.745 | 94.3% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
13.301 | 94.4% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
13.150 | 75.4% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
12.957 | 61.8% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
12.808 | 97.9% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
12.785 | 84.4% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
12.718 | 60.3% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
11.554 | 98.8% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
10.866 | 17.2% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
10.557 | 87.7% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
10.045 | 97.9% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
9.974 | 74.4% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
9.721 | 81.2% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
9.140 | 98.1% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.091 | 67.2% | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
8.789 | 100.0% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
7.615 | 83.0% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
7.555 | 90.0% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
7.207 | 89.4% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
7.127 | 95.3% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.115 | 92.3% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
6.942 | 91.0% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
6.822 | 86.5% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
6.729 | 94.2% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.541 | 89.2% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
6.487 | 33.8% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.424 | 33.5% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
6.340 | 21.5% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
6.299 | 94.4% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
6.192 | 84.8% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.131 | 80.8% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.040 | 83.3% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.874 | 88.7% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
5.602 | 81.4% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
5.409 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
5.203 | 85.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
5.125 | 11.1% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
4.595 | 97.1% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
4.590 | 11.0% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.460 | 97.5% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
4.409 | 98.7% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.088 | 97.2% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.810 | 13.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
2.972 | 13.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
2.889 | 59.0% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
2.704 | 67.4% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
2.195 | 13.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
1.984 | 56.2% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
1.511 | 95.1% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
1.503 | 42.5% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
1.279 | 93.8% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
1.232 | 4.3% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
0.594 | 13.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
0.364 | 91.7% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
0.335 | 54.9% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
-0.272 | 88.4% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.747 | 77.8% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
-0.933 | 94.9% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
-1.176 | 2.1% | Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? | Binary |
-1.325 | 99.1% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.061 | 9.5% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-3.555 | 7.7% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-3.853 | 75.9% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
-4.481 | 94.2% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.713 | 29.5% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-5.280 | 30.3% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.425 | 95.7% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-6.543 | 27.8% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-8.809 | 87.9% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-11.113 | 44.4% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
-11.455 | 97.8% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
-12.395 | 28.5% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-19.682 | 72.5% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
-25.418 | 72.1% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-31.780 | 38.9% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
-36.151 | 37.6% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-37.325 | 95.5% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
-106.300 | 92.3% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-116.458 | 94.4% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |