M

notlezah

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Duration:1 year
Time Period:2023
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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3.584Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
28.295Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?Binary
24.444Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?Binary
12.632Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?Binary
8.121Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?Binary
6.919Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?Binary
6.657Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?Binary
6.377Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?Binary
6.130Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?Binary
5.970Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?Binary
5.719Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?Binary
5.206Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?Binary
5.010Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?Binary
3.312Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?Binary
3.270Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?Binary
3.220Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?Binary
2.527Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?Binary
2.153Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?Binary
1.753Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?Binary
1.655Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?Binary
1.333Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?Binary
1.307Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?Binary
0.574Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?Binary
0.395Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?Binary
0.343Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?Binary
0.290Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?Binary
0.174Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?Binary
-0.430Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?Binary