M

Stilico

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Duration:1 year
Time Period:2023
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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5.893Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
60.225Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?Binary
50.902Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?Binary
42.608Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?Binary
32.668Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?Binary
30.901How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?Continuous
25.940Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?Binary
25.339When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?Continuous
21.983Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?Binary
21.296Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?Binary
17.886When will the second Starship test flight occur?Continuous
17.814Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?Binary
17.245Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?Binary
17.017Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?Binary
16.405Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?Binary
16.264Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?Binary
15.895Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024Binary
15.594Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?Binary
14.603Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?Binary
14.159What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?Continuous
11.509Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?Binary
10.568Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?Binary
10.114Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?Binary
9.871Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?Binary
9.683Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)Binary
8.982Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?Binary
8.653Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?Binary
8.434Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?Binary
7.777Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?Binary
7.584Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?Binary
6.312Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?Binary
6.013Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?Binary
5.932Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)Binary
5.925Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?Binary
5.621Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?Binary
5.176Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?Binary
4.672Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?Binary
4.624Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?Binary
4.557Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?Binary
4.355What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?Continuous
4.242Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?Binary
4.154Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?Binary
3.729Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?Binary
3.544Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?Binary
3.338Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?Binary
2.850Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?Binary
2.794Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?Binary
2.650Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?Binary
2.357Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?Binary
2.308Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?Binary
2.064Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?Binary
1.799Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?Binary
1.661Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)Binary
1.659How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?Continuous
1.550Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?Binary
1.545Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?Binary
1.503What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?Continuous
1.287Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?Binary
1.094Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?Binary
1.088Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?Binary
0.730ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?Binary
0.419Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?Binary
0.350Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?Binary
0.339Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?Binary
0.272Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?Binary
0.014Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)Binary
0.012Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?Binary
0.006Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)Binary
0.004Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)Binary
-0.036Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)Binary
-0.041Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)Binary
-0.048Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)Binary
-0.050Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)Binary
-0.051Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)Binary
-0.051Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)Binary
-0.054Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)Binary
-0.056Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)Binary
-0.059Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)Binary
-0.059Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)Binary
-0.060Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)Binary
-0.060Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)Binary
-0.063Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)Binary
-0.066Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)Binary
-0.368Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?Binary
-0.627Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)Binary
-1.752Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?Binary
-2.095Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?Binary
-2.976Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?Binary
-3.157Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?Binary
-4.464What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?Continuous
-4.861Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?Binary
-4.917Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?Binary
-7.150Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?Binary
-10.138Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?Binary
-16.474Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?Binary
-19.792Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)Binary
-25.175When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?Continuous

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