101.721 | 99.8% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
90.601 | 99.9% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
85.501 | 99.9% | 2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election? | Binary |
85.453 | 99.9% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
76.673 | 99.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
75.538 | 99.8% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
69.160 | 98.7% | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
67.320 | 98.3% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
66.594 | 99.0% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
66.439 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
63.025 | 99.7% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
61.674 | 100.0% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
60.899 | 99.9% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
58.916 | 90.3% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
58.607 | 99.8% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
57.858 | 99.9% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris) | Continuous |
57.720 | 99.6% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
54.931 | 99.9% | When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs? | Multiple Choice |
53.324 | 99.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
50.563 | 99.9% | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
50.506 | 98.5% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
49.373 | 100.0% | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
48.819 | 100.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
48.707 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York) | Continuous |
47.979 | 100.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
47.239 | 99.9% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
46.527 | 100.0% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
45.120 | 99.9% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
44.936 | 99.9% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
44.677 | 99.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France) | Binary |
43.329 | 99.9% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
42.911 | 99.6% | How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the BJP win in the 2024 Indian election? | Continuous |
42.442 | 100.0% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
42.312 | 100.0% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
41.668 | 100.0% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
41.599 | 94.3% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Renaissance) | Continuous |
41.531 | 99.8% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
40.674 | 100.0% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
40.424 | 99.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
40.015 | 100.0% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
39.777 | 99.8% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
39.148 | 87.6% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
39.114 | 99.8% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
39.065 | 99.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico) | Binary |
38.890 | 99.9% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.756 | 94.3% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Les Républicains) | Continuous |
38.702 | 99.9% | EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025) | Continuous |
38.573 | 99.6% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
38.162 | 99.9% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
37.287 | 99.8% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
37.268 | 99.8% | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
36.896 | 35.1% | How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
36.563 | 100.0% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
36.396 | 100.0% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
36.391 | 100.0% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
36.277 | 99.9% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
36.123 | 99.3% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
36.084 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
36.066 | 99.8% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
36.065 | 99.6% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
36.056 | 99.4% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
35.821 | 100.0% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
34.874 | 100.0% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
34.526 | 99.4% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
34.369 | 69.4% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
34.235 | 84.4% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
33.843 | 35.1% | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
33.603 | 99.8% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
33.586 | 91.5% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
33.523 | 99.8% | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
33.501 | 100.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
33.349 | 99.9% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
33.312 | 97.4% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
32.927 | 99.4% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
32.916 | 97.4% | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
32.396 | 99.8% | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
32.366 | 99.4% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
32.175 | 99.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China) | Binary |
32.078 | 89.1% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
32.043 | 79.1% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
31.810 | 99.2% | What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024? | Continuous |
31.420 | 100.0% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
31.355 | 99.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil) | Binary |
31.248 | 45.6% | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
31.190 | 99.6% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
31.101 | 99.6% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
30.966 | 100.0% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
30.956 | 99.8% | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
30.584 | 99.9% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
30.409 | 100.0% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
30.226 | 100.0% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
30.004 | 98.8% | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
29.954 | 99.9% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
29.353 | 98.3% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
29.349 | 75.6% | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
29.144 | 99.7% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
28.843 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
28.643 | 99.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
28.608 | 98.1% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique? | Multiple Choice |
28.501 | 98.8% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
28.353 | 99.9% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.301 | 98.7% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
28.147 | 100.0% | How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior? | Continuous |
27.545 | 100.0% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
27.278 | 99.6% | Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024? | Binary |
27.229 | 63.5% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
27.154 | 98.1% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.069 | 82.8% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
26.410 | 99.9% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
26.264 | 40.7% | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
26.252 | 99.4% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
26.197 | 96.5% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
26.160 | 95.0% | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
25.876 | 94.3% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
25.797 | 60.0% | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
25.756 | 100.0% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
25.729 | 99.8% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
25.634 | 96.8% | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
25.459 | 99.9% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
25.377 | 99.8% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
25.312 | 99.9% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
25.150 | 99.9% | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
25.078 | 98.3% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
25.005 | 99.0% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
24.790 | 94.3% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (La France Insoumise) | Continuous |
24.770 | 99.9% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
24.664 | 99.6% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.654 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio) | Continuous |
24.344 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona) | Continuous |
24.180 | 98.4% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
24.073 | 98.7% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
23.568 | 99.6% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
23.426 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia) | Continuous |
23.362 | 98.4% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland? | Multiple Choice |
23.208 | 99.9% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
22.777 | 65.1% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.724 | 69.4% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
22.647 | 83.3% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia) | Continuous |
22.610 | 99.9% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (August 2024) | Continuous |
22.501 | 99.5% | What vote percentage will Sadiq Khan win in the 2024 London mayoral election? | Continuous |
22.458 | 99.5% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
22.023 | 99.4% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
21.996 | 100.0% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.638 | 100.0% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
21.564 | 99.0% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (May 31, '24) | Continuous |
21.537 | 99.9% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
21.500 | 99.9% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
21.487 | 99.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia) | Binary |
21.118 | 91.9% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
20.969 | 99.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
20.739 | 99.9% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.469 | 99.9% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.438 | 99.9% | Which science fiction novel will win a Hugo Award in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
20.232 | 98.0% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
20.105 | 97.6% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
19.963 | 99.1% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
19.910 | 100.0% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
19.905 | 97.2% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
19.799 | 89.1% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
19.727 | 99.7% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
19.705 | 99.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh) | Binary |
19.652 | 97.3% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
19.593 | 91.8% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
19.435 | 99.9% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
19.292 | 99.3% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
19.286 | 99.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
19.241 | 93.3% | Result of Ireland's constitutional referendums on March 8, 2024? (40th Amendment ("Care")) | Binary |
19.035 | 99.5% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
19.034 | 39.9% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.764 | 45.3% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
18.720 | 99.6% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
18.672 | 96.3% | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
18.593 | 99.9% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
18.474 | 97.5% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
18.362 | 84.3% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
18.323 | 99.8% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
18.318 | 99.5% | FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak? | Continuous |
18.180 | 98.6% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana? | Multiple Choice |
18.135 | 94.3% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Socialiste) | Continuous |
18.079 | 99.7% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Sep. 28, '24) | Continuous |
18.031 | 66.6% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
17.981 | 100.0% | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
17.953 | 100.0% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
17.926 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
17.829 | 99.7% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
17.740 | 99.8% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
17.684 | 82.4% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
17.517 | 99.3% | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
17.279 | 99.9% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
17.035 | 100.0% | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
16.555 | 99.9% | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
16.500 | 98.0% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
16.151 | 90.0% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
16.127 | 99.6% | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
15.982 | 99.9% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
15.908 | 100.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
15.884 | 95.0% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (November 2024) | Continuous |
15.791 | 89.8% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
15.723 | 99.6% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
15.684 | 47.8% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
15.659 | 99.7% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.654 | 72.4% | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
15.576 | 84.7% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
15.568 | 99.8% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.394 | 99.3% | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
15.364 | 99.0% | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
15.292 | 99.9% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Continuous |
15.073 | 34.0% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
15.044 | 35.1% | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
14.892 | 98.5% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan? | Multiple Choice |
14.754 | 99.8% | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.692 | 99.8% | How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year? | Multiple Choice |
14.672 | 99.9% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.487 | 100.0% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
14.337 | 99.9% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
14.299 | 52.1% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
14.108 | 57.9% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
14.022 | 98.4% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
13.613 | 73.2% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
13.419 | 99.7% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.284 | 99.6% | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024) | Continuous |
13.212 | 100.0% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
13.081 | 98.7% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
12.984 | 99.7% | (closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
12.912 | 99.9% | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
12.801 | 97.2% | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
12.623 | 100.0% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
12.607 | 87.6% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
12.527 | 99.9% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
12.357 | 99.7% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
12.178 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
12.038 | 97.6% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria? | Multiple Choice |
11.979 | 61.0% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
11.861 | 99.8% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
11.822 | 99.9% | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
11.664 | 87.6% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
11.617 | 97.4% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.610 | 31.9% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
11.595 | 99.2% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
11.482 | 99.8% | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
11.382 | 99.8% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.309 | 99.9% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
11.230 | 99.9% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (October 2024) | Continuous |
11.204 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.095 | 99.5% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
10.984 | 99.9% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
10.913 | 70.1% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
10.639 | 98.8% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
10.603 | 100.0% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
10.533 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada) | Continuous |
10.430 | 99.8% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
10.386 | 21.8% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
10.276 | 99.6% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (June 2024) | Continuous |
10.159 | 93.3% | Result of Ireland's constitutional referendums on March 8, 2024? (39th Amendment ("The Family")) | Binary |
9.977 | 97.8% | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
9.499 | 99.0% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
9.497 | 99.8% | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
9.480 | 93.2% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
9.336 | 99.7% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Oct. 31, '24) | Continuous |
9.262 | 99.6% | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
9.236 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota) | Continuous |
9.099 | 99.2% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
9.031 | 99.6% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
8.919 | 100.0% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
8.825 | 99.8% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
8.761 | 99.9% | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
8.715 | 99.9% | What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
8.676 | 10.1% | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
8.607 | 94.7% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania? | Multiple Choice |
8.581 | 99.1% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
8.563 | 70.8% | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
8.545 | 99.8% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Nov. 30, '24) | Continuous |
8.503 | 99.9% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (September 2024) | Continuous |
8.461 | 99.8% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
8.280 | 50.7% | What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)? | Continuous |
8.262 | 99.4% | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.261 | 60.3% | Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024? | Binary |
8.085 | 97.9% | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
7.948 | 99.7% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
7.916 | 82.3% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
7.893 | 100.0% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
7.833 | 99.4% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.738 | 99.9% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
7.670 | 75.4% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
7.665 | 99.8% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
7.511 | 99.8% | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
7.453 | 12.8% | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | Binary |
7.434 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
7.408 | 14.2% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
7.372 | 26.6% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
7.369 | 97.8% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka? | Multiple Choice |
7.328 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan) | Continuous |
7.288 | 97.1% | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
7.193 | 98.5% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia? | Multiple Choice |
7.171 | 14.1% | What will be the fate of Starliner Calypso by September 30? | Multiple Choice |
7.165 | 26.3% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
7.165 | 90.8% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.126 | 22.0% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1) | Binary |
7.071 | 96.9% | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
7.051 | 99.8% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
7.018 | 99.8% | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.011 | 98.5% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.963 | 99.8% | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
6.712 | 99.2% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
6.683 | 99.9% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
6.631 | 100.0% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
6.584 | 27.9% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
6.467 | 39.6% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
6.460 | 99.8% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.386 | 100.0% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
6.346 | 36.0% | What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024? | Continuous |
6.249 | 94.3% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
6.125 | 53.1% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
5.924 | 99.6% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.326 | 99.7% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.276 | 98.4% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.267 | 99.1% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
5.075 | 99.7% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.063 | 97.2% | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
5.056 | 11.4% | Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
4.767 | 44.6% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.758 | 100.0% | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
4.647 | 99.4% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.608 | 99.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
4.492 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina) | Continuous |
4.425 | 99.8% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (July 2024) | Continuous |
4.378 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.301 | 77.4% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
4.295 | 99.8% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
4.186 | 99.8% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.133 | 99.8% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
4.107 | 99.8% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
4.021 | 100.0% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.017 | 64.2% | Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024? | Binary |
3.958 | 21.5% | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | Binary |
3.676 | 99.9% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
3.616 | 99.7% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
3.504 | 79.2% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.389 | 63.1% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.380 | 99.9% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
3.371 | 53.4% | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
3.347 | 94.6% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
3.326 | 61.8% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
3.288 | 99.1% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona) | Binary |
3.219 | 97.8% | Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
3.211 | 29.0% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
3.007 | 100.0% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
2.907 | 95.8% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda? | Multiple Choice |
2.902 | 100.0% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
2.897 | 24.7% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in the Dominican Republic? | Multiple Choice |
2.851 | 54.5% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
2.841 | 94.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas) | Binary |
2.578 | 97.4% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (May 2024) | Continuous |
2.471 | 99.8% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
2.388 | 96.2% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
2.329 | 15.6% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
2.319 | 99.8% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
2.293 | 99.9% | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
2.278 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
2.262 | 14.5% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
2.255 | 99.9% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
2.209 | 97.3% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on November 8, 2024? | Continuous |
2.187 | 99.7% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
2.164 | 99.4% | Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? (No) → Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? | Binary |
1.997 | 99.9% | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
1.960 | 52.4% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
1.863 | 99.1% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
1.848 | 99.9% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
1.763 | 9.2% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
1.304 | 6.6% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad? | Multiple Choice |
1.301 | 95.4% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
1.281 | 95.9% | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
1.272 | 99.9% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.958 | 98.4% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
0.920 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
0.883 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
0.864 | 99.9% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
0.821 | 37.2% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.739 | 20.7% | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
0.724 | 82.2% | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Vladimir Putin) | Continuous |
0.674 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
0.642 | 33.6% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.640 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin) | Continuous |
0.577 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
0.576 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
0.547 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
0.508 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
0.504 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
0.466 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
0.459 | 95.1% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
0.292 | 99.9% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
0.258 | 1.6% | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Democratic Alliance) | Binary |
0.232 | 99.8% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
0.195 | 99.9% | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
0.143 | 1.7% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
0.022 | 1.6% | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (African National Congress) | Binary |
-0.024 | 5.8% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
-0.072 | 1.6% | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (uMkhonto we Sizwe Party) | Binary |
-0.147 | 0.1% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.206 | 100.0% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
-0.288 | 3.6% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
-0.690 | 98.4% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau? | Multiple Choice |
-0.731 | 96.1% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan) | Binary |
-0.866 | 96.3% | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
-0.891 | 58.5% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
-0.968 | 45.1% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-1.106 | 95.9% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
-1.174 | 95.7% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
-1.748 | 99.4% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? | Binary |
-1.798 | 45.5% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
-2.084 | 56.3% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
-2.502 | 99.1% | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
-2.620 | 99.6% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Aug. 31, '24) | Continuous |
-2.825 | 99.6% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
-2.849 | 44.6% | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
-3.113 | 92.3% | Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-3.125 | 84.1% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
-3.161 | 11.3% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-3.355 | 98.9% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-3.466 | 99.9% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
-3.582 | 48.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-3.827 | 33.3% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-4.393 | 31.9% | What is the expected (median) date of deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024)? | Continuous |
-4.547 | 21.4% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-4.953 | 99.5% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
-5.175 | 96.7% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-6.094 | 94.3% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Communiste) | Continuous |
-6.402 | 86.3% | Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-6.701 | 99.5% | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
-6.741 | 99.5% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jul. 31, '24) | Continuous |
-6.898 | 99.8% | 2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%? (No) → 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? | Binary |
-7.281 | 98.3% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Apr. 30, '24) | Continuous |
-7.974 | 98.5% | Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
-8.074 | 99.9% | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2024) | Continuous |
-8.080 | 89.9% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
-8.258 | 99.5% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
-8.547 | 99.4% | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jun. 29, '24) | Continuous |
-8.582 | 44.2% | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
-9.254 | 96.5% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
-9.788 | 96.7% | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
-9.829 | 100.0% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
-10.233 | 70.3% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
-12.746 | 99.8% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
-13.345 | 83.3% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire) | Continuous |
-13.799 | 99.2% | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
-16.297 | 61.9% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
-16.565 | 99.8% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-16.638 | 91.5% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-18.021 | 99.2% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
-18.475 | 29.1% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (India) | Binary |
-19.082 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas) | Continuous |
-20.078 | 99.3% | Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion? | Binary |
-22.256 | 43.9% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
-22.495 | 95.9% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-23.838 | 100.0% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
-24.909 | 94.4% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National) | Continuous |
-25.011 | 99.9% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida) | Continuous |
-25.613 | 89.0% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland? | Multiple Choice |
-25.701 | 93.5% | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
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