M

mdkenyon

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Duration:1 year
Time Period:2023
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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3.31Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
36.362Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?Binary
35.629How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?Continuous
34.084Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?Binary
24.302Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?Binary
22.722When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?Continuous
18.520Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?Binary
18.267Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?Binary
18.096Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?Binary
17.212[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))Binary
15.051Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?Binary
14.393Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?Binary
12.353Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?Binary
8.538Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?Binary
8.329Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?Binary
7.659[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?Continuous
7.291Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?Binary
6.636Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?Binary
6.288Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?Binary
5.889Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?Binary
5.556Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?Binary
5.522[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))Binary
5.466When will the second Starship test flight occur?Continuous
5.111Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?Binary
4.904Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?Binary
4.421Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?Binary
4.327Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?Binary
3.637Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?Binary
3.591Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?Binary
3.280Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?Binary
2.766[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))Binary
2.523Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?Binary
2.199Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?Binary
2.026Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?Binary
1.482[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))Binary
1.252[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))Binary
1.168[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))Binary
1.043Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?Binary
0.830[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))Binary
0.728[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))Binary
0.708[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))Binary
0.653Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?Binary
0.528Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?Binary
0.484[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))Binary
0.276Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?Binary
0.261[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))Binary
0.253[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))Binary
0.221Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?Binary
0.154[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))Binary
0.080Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?Binary
0.017Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?Binary
-0.137Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?Binary
-1.684Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?Binary
-4.017How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?Continuous
-14.135Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?Binary
-16.619Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?Binary
-16.785Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?Binary
-17.084How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?Continuous
-120.620Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?Binary

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