149.060 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Belgium) | Binary |
147.376 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Poland) | Binary |
105.256 | 99.6% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
69.798 | 99.1% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
68.331 | 99.1% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
67.927 | 97.8% | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | Binary |
67.767 | 99.4% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
65.763 | 98.5% | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
65.136 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
64.895 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Latvia) | Binary |
64.150 | 99.9% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
63.982 | 99.6% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
63.450 | 99.8% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
59.580 | 90.3% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
54.601 | 99.8% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
54.525 | 99.4% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
53.941 | 99.4% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
53.259 | 99.8% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
51.504 | 99.7% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
51.055 | 99.5% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
50.981 | 100.0% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
48.347 | 99.7% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
46.433 | 97.3% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
45.745 | 98.8% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
45.417 | 99.9% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
45.201 | 100.0% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
44.795 | 99.3% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
44.526 | 99.6% | What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
44.486 | 99.7% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
43.539 | 94.0% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
43.069 | 79.1% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
42.490 | 99.8% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
42.463 | 95.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
42.225 | 98.9% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
40.674 | 90.4% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
40.661 | 99.7% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
40.355 | 99.7% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
39.875 | 99.9% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
39.789 | 99.7% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
39.555 | 99.8% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
39.498 | 99.0% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
39.376 | 97.1% | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
39.227 | 83.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
38.840 | 99.9% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.834 | 99.8% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
38.301 | 99.7% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
38.260 | 99.3% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
37.454 | 78.0% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
36.876 | 99.9% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
34.802 | 99.7% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
34.732 | 59.2% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Pakistan) | Binary |
34.142 | 99.7% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
33.884 | 95.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Renaissance) | Continuous |
33.304 | 61.6% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
33.087 | 99.9% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
33.009 | 61.0% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
32.330 | 99.7% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
32.316 | 82.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Ecologistes) | Continuous |
32.136 | 97.3% | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
32.026 | 99.5% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
32.005 | 99.7% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
31.561 | 99.6% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
31.416 | 96.3% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
31.228 | 95.6% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
30.760 | 100.0% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
30.604 | 94.6% | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
30.604 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Azerbaijan) | Binary |
30.379 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Denmark) | Binary |
30.370 | 99.7% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
30.227 | 86.4% | What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024? | Continuous |
30.038 | 99.9% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
29.816 | 82.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Libertés, Indépendants, OutreMer, Territoires) | Continuous |
29.771 | 94.0% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
29.236 | 100.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.216 | 99.9% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
29.192 | 99.5% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
29.154 | 99.5% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
29.147 | 99.6% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
29.026 | 82.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Les Républicains) | Continuous |
28.853 | 94.0% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
28.474 | 82.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (La France Insoumise) | Continuous |
28.412 | 99.5% | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.239 | 94.4% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
27.961 | 99.7% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
27.860 | 99.9% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
27.755 | 99.6% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.544 | 99.9% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
27.245 | 99.6% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.039 | 43.5% | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
27.028 | 97.6% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
26.550 | 99.7% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
26.226 | 99.7% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
25.955 | 99.9% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
25.949 | 99.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
25.767 | 99.1% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
25.464 | 99.6% | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
25.271 | 82.4% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
25.170 | 99.6% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
24.573 | 99.6% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
24.493 | 94.0% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
24.459 | 99.7% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
24.283 | 99.9% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.265 | 99.2% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
24.226 | 99.5% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
23.864 | 98.9% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
23.835 | 99.6% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.776 | 100.0% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
23.331 | 99.2% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.186 | 99.8% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.023 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Australia) | Binary |
22.835 | 99.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
22.703 | 63.3% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
22.406 | 81.6% | [Short fuse] Who will win the 2024 Uruguayan Presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
22.376 | 100.0% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.231 | 99.6% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
22.171 | 37.8% | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
22.134 | 99.8% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
22.120 | 99.8% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
22.019 | 99.8% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
21.957 | 99.9% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
21.914 | 99.5% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
21.689 | 99.8% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
21.459 | 71.2% | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
21.325 | 99.9% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.293 | 99.9% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
21.116 | 82.1% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
20.977 | 82.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Socialiste) | Continuous |
20.682 | 97.0% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique? | Multiple Choice |
20.648 | 99.6% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
20.538 | 96.5% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka? | Multiple Choice |
19.887 | 99.5% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
19.525 | 99.7% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
19.368 | 99.9% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
19.267 | 63.7% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.142 | 99.9% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
18.953 | 39.7% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
18.925 | 99.8% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.708 | 99.9% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.705 | 99.7% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
18.629 | 99.9% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
18.533 | 99.6% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
18.487 | 99.7% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
18.325 | 98.5% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
18.267 | 99.9% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
18.011 | 78.9% | What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament? | Multiple Choice |
17.975 | 100.0% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
17.650 | 88.7% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
17.346 | 64.1% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.295 | 94.8% | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
17.281 | 99.6% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
17.166 | 99.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
16.996 | 99.7% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
16.946 | 97.9% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
16.671 | 57.9% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
16.664 | 97.7% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
16.610 | 99.9% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
16.412 | 58.9% | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
16.400 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
15.897 | 99.9% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
15.856 | 98.8% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.837 | 99.7% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
15.412 | 99.4% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
15.327 | 96.6% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
15.199 | 82.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Communiste) | Continuous |
15.140 | 99.5% | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
15.067 | 97.3% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
15.013 | 99.7% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
14.978 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
14.978 | 99.5% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
14.956 | 98.1% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
14.766 | 94.4% | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
14.759 | 95.0% | How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year? | Multiple Choice |
14.688 | 99.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
14.538 | 99.7% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
14.436 | 97.7% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
14.389 | 98.1% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
14.120 | 43.8% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
14.115 | 82.1% | After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus? | Multiple Choice |
13.715 | 99.5% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
13.645 | 99.8% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
13.596 | 45.0% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.364 | 89.4% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick) | Binary |
13.334 | 96.2% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria? | Multiple Choice |
13.237 | 99.1% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
13.148 | 99.5% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
13.122 | 54.8% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
13.050 | 90.9% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania? | Multiple Choice |
12.934 | 14.8% | Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament? | Binary |
12.800 | 74.3% | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
12.515 | 38.6% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
12.457 | 99.8% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
12.319 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
12.146 | 97.4% | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.142 | 98.1% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
12.061 | 99.9% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.990 | 48.6% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
11.862 | 99.7% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
11.566 | 36.1% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.566 | 98.2% | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
11.505 | 97.2% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
11.489 | 98.1% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris) | Continuous |
11.383 | 69.4% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
11.198 | 97.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
11.139 | 86.6% | What will be the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024? | Continuous |
10.923 | 99.7% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
10.885 | 21.3% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
10.847 | 99.5% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
10.800 | 70.2% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
10.743 | 99.6% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
10.720 | 99.8% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
10.704 | 86.5% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
10.653 | 99.8% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
10.621 | 93.3% | How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024? | Continuous |
10.581 | 68.3% | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
10.436 | 96.6% | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
10.148 | 98.9% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
10.064 | 99.7% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
9.865 | 63.2% | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
9.786 | 98.9% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.666 | 99.7% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.653 | 94.4% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
9.462 | 99.4% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
9.371 | 99.6% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
9.104 | 99.8% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
9.100 | 76.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China) | Binary |
9.068 | 39.7% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
9.017 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland) | Binary |
9.001 | 45.5% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
8.861 | 99.9% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
8.768 | 10.1% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.751 | 99.9% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
8.720 | 34.4% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
8.702 | 27.8% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
8.634 | 99.1% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
8.521 | 99.9% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.514 | 99.0% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
8.479 | 98.4% | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
8.438 | 98.9% | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
8.428 | 25.5% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia) | Continuous |
8.392 | 99.7% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
8.389 | 99.4% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
8.388 | 99.5% | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
8.371 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
8.241 | 99.8% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
8.184 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
8.161 | 25.5% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska) | Continuous |
8.067 | 99.8% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
7.996 | 32.3% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
7.948 | 99.4% | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
7.924 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Israel) | Binary |
7.825 | 67.9% | Who will be the new leader of PASOK after the elections of October 2024? | Who will be the new PASOK leader after the October 2024 elections? | Multiple Choice |
7.809 | 99.8% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
7.788 | 88.7% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
7.775 | 93.2% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
7.695 | 25.5% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
7.560 | 99.9% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
7.407 | 99.8% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.368 | 22.0% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1) | Binary |
7.292 | 96.5% | Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? | Binary |
7.270 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
7.241 | 99.9% | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
7.090 | 99.4% | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.065 | 99.4% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.027 | 99.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.774 | 97.9% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
6.640 | 78.9% | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
6.504 | 99.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
6.496 | 99.7% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
6.440 | 31.0% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
6.355 | 99.8% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.322 | 62.0% | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
6.203 | 45.6% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
6.142 | 99.8% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.138 | 37.3% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.120 | 52.5% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
6.116 | 88.3% | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
6.095 | 43.8% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
6.086 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Moldova) | Binary |
6.006 | 34.7% | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
5.893 | 99.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.844 | 98.0% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
5.649 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
5.619 | 99.7% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
5.570 | 24.9% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany) | Binary |
5.227 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
5.187 | 84.8% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
5.176 | 76.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia) | Binary |
4.994 | 64.5% | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
4.828 | 100.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.810 | 25.5% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan) | Continuous |
4.777 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
4.632 | 93.5% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
4.553 | 57.1% | Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.336 | 97.2% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
4.332 | 75.1% | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
4.240 | 89.4% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat) | Binary |
4.198 | 99.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
4.181 | 82.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Non affiliated) | Continuous |
4.142 | 97.7% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana? | Multiple Choice |
4.036 | 98.8% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.996 | 76.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh) | Binary |
3.968 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Czechia) | Binary |
3.762 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Albania) | Binary |
3.727 | 26.3% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
3.695 | 99.3% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
3.658 | 99.9% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.593 | 25.5% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina) | Continuous |
3.582 | 89.4% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly) | Binary |
3.553 | 90.7% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
3.540 | 99.4% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
3.524 | 94.1% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
3.519 | 21.6% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in the Dominican Republic? | Multiple Choice |
3.427 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
3.415 | 63.4% | Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024? | Binary |
3.224 | 99.6% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
3.222 | 99.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
3.214 | 94.0% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
3.182 | 94.9% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024) | Continuous |
3.173 | 99.9% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
3.088 | 97.1% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
3.063 | 10.6% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.861 | 98.8% | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
2.551 | 82.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Horizons) | Continuous |
2.547 | 92.9% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda? | Multiple Choice |
2.532 | 7.8% | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
2.376 | 28.9% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
2.309 | 92.8% | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
2.290 | 99.1% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
2.229 | 33.4% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.160 | 99.9% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
2.113 | 61.8% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
2.071 | 31.6% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
2.058 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.940 | 72.4% | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
1.765 | 96.6% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
1.753 | 5.5% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (India) | Binary |
1.683 | 10.8% | Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community? | Continuous |
1.539 | 5.9% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
1.461 | 88.8% | Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? (No) → Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? | Binary |
1.443 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
1.328 | 97.5% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan? | Multiple Choice |
1.326 | 38.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia) | Binary |
1.226 | 94.1% | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
1.202 | 76.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
1.138 | 84.4% | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
0.954 | 97.8% | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
0.948 | 99.4% | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
0.933 | 1.8% | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
0.782 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.780 | 99.9% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.713 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
0.687 | 1.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona) | Binary |
0.649 | 100.0% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.596 | 43.7% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States) | Binary |
0.588 | 15.4% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
0.585 | 76.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France) | Binary |
0.558 | 10.9% | Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
0.556 | 0.8% | Trump guilty in Manhattan by Election Day (Yes) → Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? | Binary |
0.535 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
0.506 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.504 | 99.9% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
0.466 | 9.2% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.451 | 22.1% | [Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly? | Binary |
0.449 | 90.3% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
0.424 | 99.9% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.415 | 26.4% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024) | Continuous |
0.338 | 3.3% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
0.327 | 99.8% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.307 | 11.6% | Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season? | Binary |
0.294 | 89.4% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride) | Binary |
0.255 | 1.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
0.253 | 80.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.233 | 14.2% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
0.220 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.206 | 89.4% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel) | Binary |
0.073 | 85.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.054 | 1.1% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
0.001 | 54.9% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
-0.012 | 19.0% | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | Binary |
-0.111 | 88.8% | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? | Binary |
-0.161 | 95.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National) | Continuous |
-0.203 | 1.1% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
-0.218 | 92.0% | Which NHL team will win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup? | Multiple Choice |
-0.308 | 99.3% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
-0.353 | 0.2% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.355 | 83.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
-0.375 | 21.6% | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-0.413 | 78.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
-0.462 | 80.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
-0.564 | 97.3% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
-0.689 | 95.4% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau? | Multiple Choice |
-0.704 | 53.9% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024) | Continuous |
-0.921 | 91.4% | How many personal bankruptcies will be filed in the United States in the third quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-0.993 | 99.6% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
-1.046 | 76.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
-1.215 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ukraine) | Binary |
-1.469 | 96.0% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
-1.555 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Malta) | Binary |
-1.610 | 99.9% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
-1.757 | 99.8% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
-2.000 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia) | Binary |
-2.144 | 45.0% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-2.333 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (San Marino) | Binary |
-2.375 | 63.8% | [Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
-2.419 | 100.0% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-2.453 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Iceland) | Binary |
-2.454 | 97.1% | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
-2.768 | 97.0% | Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024? | Binary |
-3.522 | 88.8% | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024) | Continuous |
-3.680 | 89.4% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
-3.780 | 75.8% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
-4.105 | 98.3% | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
-4.164 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
-4.262 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
-4.263 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
-4.328 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
-4.338 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
-4.360 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
-4.371 | 25.5% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas) | Continuous |
-4.492 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
-4.591 | 3.4% | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | Binary |
-4.692 | 83.7% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
-5.202 | 25.5% | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida) | Continuous |
-5.295 | 60.0% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
-5.549 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Netherlands) | Binary |
-6.309 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Portugal) | Binary |
-6.815 | 99.7% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
-6.988 | 51.8% | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
-7.132 | 92.4% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
-7.524 | 98.8% | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
-7.915 | 97.5% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia? | Multiple Choice |
-8.389 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Luxembourg) | Binary |
-9.069 | 14.4% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-9.535 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
-9.630 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
-9.916 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
-10.160 | 96.3% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
-10.516 | 95.7% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-10.583 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Estonia) | Binary |
-10.650 | 76.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil) | Binary |
-10.670 | 99.9% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
-10.708 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland) | Binary |
-11.456 | 47.2% | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
-11.702 | 99.9% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-12.155 | 87.2% | Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Greece) | Binary |
-12.179 | 99.7% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-12.871 | 76.4% | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico) | Binary |
-13.025 | 99.8% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-13.370 | 98.2% | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
-14.910 | 40.2% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-15.559 | 97.4% | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
-15.902 | 9.2% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-15.918 | 99.4% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
-18.341 | 98.1% | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
-19.982 | 45.9% | Result of Ireland's constitutional referendums on March 8, 2024? (40th Amendment ("Care")) | Binary |
-21.795 | 82.1% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Démocrates (Modem and independents)) | Continuous |
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