101.659 | 99.8% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
71.949 | 99.8% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
68.471 | 90.3% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
67.362 | 78.2% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
64.530 | 90.1% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
60.834 | 99.5% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
57.696 | 100.0% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
55.011 | 98.9% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
51.613 | 100.0% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
51.212 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
49.863 | 99.4% | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
49.854 | 96.1% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
49.546 | 71.5% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
48.288 | 94.5% | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
47.442 | 91.2% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
47.056 | 81.0% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
47.031 | 97.7% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
46.949 | 94.9% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
46.412 | 71.5% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
45.462 | 97.1% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
43.832 | 100.0% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
43.602 | 83.1% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
42.817 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
42.705 | 98.5% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
42.197 | 76.4% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
42.146 | 95.4% | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
41.742 | 100.0% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
41.057 | 99.9% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
40.077 | 100.0% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
38.952 | 99.9% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
37.568 | 33.3% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
36.045 | 100.0% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
35.746 | 99.4% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
35.744 | 48.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
34.728 | 99.7% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
33.601 | 99.9% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
33.509 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
33.212 | 100.0% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
32.210 | 99.5% | How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024? | Continuous |
31.684 | 100.0% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
30.835 | 99.6% | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
29.872 | 98.2% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
29.750 | 69.1% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
29.040 | 84.3% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
28.831 | 45.3% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
28.726 | 94.6% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.179 | 99.0% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
28.107 | 99.6% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
27.153 | 100.0% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
26.302 | 99.1% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
26.110 | 98.9% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
25.909 | 91.4% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
25.818 | 91.6% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
25.809 | 100.0% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
25.679 | 59.0% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
25.578 | 100.0% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
25.465 | 100.0% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
25.190 | 99.7% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
25.044 | 99.9% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
24.727 | 36.4% | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
24.692 | 98.7% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
24.388 | 98.9% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
24.364 | 98.4% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.003 | 63.4% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
23.678 | 99.8% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
22.779 | 99.4% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
22.089 | 100.0% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
22.088 | 91.2% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
21.409 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
21.299 | 84.8% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.060 | 95.8% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
20.921 | 99.7% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.753 | 91.7% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.581 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
20.189 | 94.5% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
19.979 | 84.8% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
19.563 | 96.7% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
19.512 | 99.8% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.344 | 83.3% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
19.178 | 87.6% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
18.898 | 97.6% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
18.579 | 84.7% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
17.951 | 97.0% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
17.879 | 99.9% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.665 | 28.3% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
17.036 | 99.7% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
16.837 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
16.589 | 86.8% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
16.485 | 100.0% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
16.286 | 100.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
16.241 | 100.0% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
16.044 | 99.2% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
16.033 | 98.9% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
15.521 | 64.2% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
15.501 | 94.1% | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
15.459 | 97.3% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
15.456 | 99.2% | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
15.408 | 93.1% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.085 | 31.4% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
15.067 | 93.9% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
14.600 | 95.3% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
14.525 | 100.0% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
14.482 | 40.1% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.002 | 72.3% | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
13.848 | 100.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
13.639 | 100.0% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
13.307 | 58.4% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
13.194 | 19.9% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
13.193 | 99.9% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
13.002 | 99.9% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
12.851 | 99.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
12.741 | 21.4% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
12.668 | 98.4% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
12.220 | 96.4% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
12.204 | 100.0% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
12.114 | 99.2% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.111 | 72.7% | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
11.899 | 96.7% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
11.562 | 57.5% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
11.554 | 75.9% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.457 | 61.9% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
11.082 | 91.4% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
10.932 | 69.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
10.845 | 48.1% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.146 | 99.1% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
9.733 | 99.7% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
9.672 | 98.6% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.513 | 93.9% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
9.464 | 99.7% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
9.424 | 95.9% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.888 | 99.8% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
8.506 | 99.6% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.475 | 84.1% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
8.447 | 63.7% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.391 | 99.2% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
8.386 | 99.7% | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
7.823 | 16.4% | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | Binary |
7.768 | 68.1% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
7.663 | 50.0% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
7.618 | 95.1% | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
7.386 | 21.1% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1) | Binary |
7.227 | 86.8% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.849 | 99.7% | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.725 | 100.0% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
6.708 | 99.8% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.674 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
6.537 | 88.8% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
6.169 | 85.0% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
6.105 | 99.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.997 | 36.9% | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
5.591 | 39.9% | Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025? | Binary |
5.569 | 84.4% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
5.448 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
5.398 | 99.6% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
5.223 | 100.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
5.191 | 87.7% | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
5.112 | 74.0% | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
5.108 | 99.8% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
4.964 | 31.8% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
4.192 | 85.2% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
4.117 | 99.7% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
4.063 | 99.0% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
3.974 | 95.9% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
3.918 | 14.8% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
3.708 | 97.9% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.666 | 53.4% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
3.383 | 95.3% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
3.333 | 29.0% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
3.283 | 97.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
2.982 | 97.7% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
2.697 | 9.5% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
2.565 | 44.0% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
2.514 | 84.3% | [Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII? | Binary |
2.458 | 97.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
2.434 | 56.8% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
2.320 | 99.8% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.315 | 99.0% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
2.106 | 11.3% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.011 | 99.7% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.005 | 98.0% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
1.867 | 30.6% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.852 | 2.1% | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
1.802 | 99.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
1.705 | 99.1% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.587 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
1.495 | 65.1% | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
1.180 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
1.137 | 97.7% | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
1.122 | 6.9% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
1.034 | 99.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
1.011 | 4.3% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
0.985 | 3.3% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
0.893 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
0.796 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
0.780 | 31.4% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
0.737 | 61.8% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
0.704 | 21.0% | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
0.588 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
0.546 | 0.7% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
0.538 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.516 | 23.5% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.491 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
0.489 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
0.461 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
0.448 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.446 | 92.4% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.422 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
0.383 | 99.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.382 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
0.380 | 99.7% | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
0.329 | 99.9% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.293 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.262 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.256 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.236 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.081 | 99.9% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
0.057 | 6.0% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
-0.252 | 81.0% | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
-0.632 | 0.6% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.981 | 27.7% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-1.205 | 62.7% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.561 | 9.6% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.736 | 99.6% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.000 | 98.5% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.122 | 36.8% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.915 | 91.6% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
-3.752 | 100.0% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
-3.858 | 95.0% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
-4.758 | 30.6% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-4.763 | 99.7% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
-6.553 | 47.9% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
-7.345 | 99.5% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-7.914 | 86.5% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-9.862 | 81.1% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
-10.176 | 98.3% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
-10.375 | 56.2% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
-11.699 | 83.3% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
-13.573 | 99.9% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
-18.611 | 100.0% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
-18.752 | 34.9% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
-19.203 | 97.0% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-22.320 | 98.9% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
-23.090 | 20.6% | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
-23.239 | 100.0% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-23.586 | 88.3% | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
-30.709 | 37.8% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-36.530 | 98.5% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
-52.763 | 86.4% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-55.025 | 99.9% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-55.456 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-64.459 | 100.0% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
-87.221 | 99.9% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |