121.842 | 99.7% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
83.444 | 100.0% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
79.825 | 100.0% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
73.343 | 100.0% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
73.202 | 100.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
72.957 | 100.0% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
70.490 | 100.0% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
68.631 | 99.9% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
65.561 | 63.3% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
64.559 | 100.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
62.069 | 100.0% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
62.039 | 35.7% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
55.501 | 99.9% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
51.249 | 99.6% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
50.723 | 99.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
47.758 | 99.1% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
46.444 | 97.6% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
44.678 | 99.1% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
44.128 | 99.7% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
42.816 | 98.7% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
42.455 | 100.0% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
41.841 | 100.0% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
41.683 | 98.2% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
38.940 | 100.0% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
37.058 | 60.3% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
36.483 | 98.5% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
36.319 | 98.5% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
35.062 | 98.7% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
34.802 | 96.4% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
33.661 | 100.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
32.712 | 98.2% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
31.633 | 100.0% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
30.930 | 99.1% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
30.317 | 90.6% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
29.601 | 100.0% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
29.592 | 99.8% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
29.556 | 99.9% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
29.323 | 100.0% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
28.880 | 99.8% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
27.947 | 99.7% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
27.343 | 98.9% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
27.174 | 79.0% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
25.678 | 100.0% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
25.475 | 100.0% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
25.156 | 99.8% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
24.750 | 100.0% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
24.493 | 99.9% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.447 | 99.9% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
23.430 | 93.0% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
22.681 | 46.7% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
22.617 | 100.0% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
22.252 | 99.7% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.960 | 98.2% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
21.896 | 61.2% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
21.486 | 61.0% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
21.155 | 100.0% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.863 | 98.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
20.786 | 99.9% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
20.559 | 94.4% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
20.004 | 100.0% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
19.139 | 45.1% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.887 | 61.0% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
17.685 | 100.0% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.305 | 98.8% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
17.218 | 98.7% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
16.351 | 98.2% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
15.585 | 100.0% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.437 | 95.8% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
15.200 | 63.7% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.070 | 100.0% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
14.951 | 100.0% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.784 | 98.9% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
14.509 | 99.8% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
13.944 | 98.4% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
13.722 | 54.9% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
13.281 | 99.9% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
13.215 | 98.8% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
12.854 | 99.9% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
12.630 | 99.9% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
12.350 | 53.6% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
12.151 | 27.6% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
11.445 | 100.0% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
11.137 | 100.0% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
10.024 | 99.9% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.876 | 34.1% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
9.813 | 98.7% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
8.594 | 100.0% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
7.909 | 98.4% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
7.676 | 58.0% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
7.628 | 99.9% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
7.608 | 99.9% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
7.500 | 100.0% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
7.209 | 9.8% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.139 | 99.4% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
6.121 | 98.7% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.966 | 99.4% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
5.912 | 25.6% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
5.691 | 100.0% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
5.200 | 99.5% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
4.402 | 100.0% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
1.897 | 100.0% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
1.564 | 98.4% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
1.445 | 99.5% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.093 | 99.9% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
0.968 | 100.0% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
0.742 | 3.6% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
-0.182 | 45.3% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
-0.183 | 100.0% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.436 | 99.7% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
-0.850 | 19.7% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
-2.692 | 65.1% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.542 | 76.5% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
-4.671 | 93.5% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.479 | 99.9% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
-6.333 | 29.3% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-9.446 | 98.2% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-14.869 | 100.0% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
-15.448 | 37.6% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-17.092 | 99.8% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-26.327 | 100.0% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
-29.125 | 99.9% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-34.406 | 99.9% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
-35.105 | 100.0% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
-38.004 | 100.0% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |