76.875 | 95.8% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
73.847 | 99.4% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
62.806 | 93.1% | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
59.061 | 99.5% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
54.762 | 100.0% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
48.741 | 99.9% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
48.715 | 99.8% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
47.779 | 94.6% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
44.611 | 99.8% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
44.399 | 99.8% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
43.615 | 89.7% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
42.887 | 99.8% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
42.462 | 97.5% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
42.081 | 63.2% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
41.998 | 99.8% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
41.047 | 99.3% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
39.051 | 99.8% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
37.159 | 99.8% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
36.801 | 99.8% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
36.589 | 78.1% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
35.825 | 99.8% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
35.708 | 85.7% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
34.964 | 77.0% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
33.800 | 99.8% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
32.800 | 93.3% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
30.617 | 97.3% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
28.827 | 88.8% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
28.609 | 99.8% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
28.491 | 99.9% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
28.353 | 99.8% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
28.343 | 99.6% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
28.059 | 99.8% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
27.485 | 99.5% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
27.397 | 99.8% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
26.806 | 99.9% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
26.587 | 61.7% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
24.544 | 99.8% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
23.911 | 96.6% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
23.546 | 99.8% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
23.489 | 65.0% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.675 | 99.5% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
22.513 | 90.0% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
22.224 | 99.8% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
21.344 | 99.8% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
20.972 | 94.4% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
20.659 | 99.8% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
20.518 | 85.2% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
20.282 | 91.1% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
20.263 | 98.2% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.790 | 99.4% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.796 | 95.4% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.420 | 99.4% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
17.412 | 98.2% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.407 | 82.0% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
17.223 | 85.2% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
16.753 | 99.8% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
16.704 | 32.2% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
16.362 | 97.8% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
16.100 | 97.8% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
15.768 | 94.3% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
15.504 | 93.1% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
15.496 | 99.7% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.030 | 97.3% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
14.962 | 96.3% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
14.841 | 54.9% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
14.661 | 95.4% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
14.624 | 93.1% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
14.599 | 99.6% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.518 | 99.4% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
14.018 | 100.0% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.840 | 99.8% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
13.594 | 98.7% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
13.506 | 95.2% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
12.945 | 99.8% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
12.348 | 99.8% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
11.970 | 100.0% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.205 | 99.8% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
10.628 | 99.5% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
10.473 | 89.2% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
10.285 | 47.8% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
10.248 | 96.0% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
10.187 | 99.9% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
8.859 | 99.6% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
8.849 | 88.8% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.736 | 97.4% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.052 | 99.6% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.764 | 97.9% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
7.273 | 98.7% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
7.252 | 48.6% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
7.187 | 91.0% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
6.500 | 21.2% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
6.396 | 99.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.869 | 99.9% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
5.461 | 95.7% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.376 | 100.0% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
5.202 | 99.2% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
5.089 | 38.7% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
4.890 | 99.6% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
4.384 | 14.2% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
4.211 | 88.8% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.170 | 100.0% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
4.161 | 9.2% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
4.010 | 98.4% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
3.873 | 56.2% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
3.667 | 99.8% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
3.557 | 98.1% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
3.455 | 99.9% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
2.959 | 99.4% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
2.496 | 99.6% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.136 | 97.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
1.949 | 99.7% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
1.732 | 45.0% | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
1.129 | 4.7% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
0.031 | 0.1% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.246 | 92.1% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-1.450 | 97.1% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
-1.475 | 85.4% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
-2.669 | 99.2% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
-2.682 | 95.7% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
-2.909 | 88.7% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
-3.354 | 85.7% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.431 | 95.1% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
-5.115 | 99.9% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.197 | 80.8% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-5.644 | 27.5% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
-7.746 | 96.1% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
-8.351 | 99.5% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
-9.465 | 99.7% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-9.708 | 39.5% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-13.674 | 99.7% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-18.293 | 62.7% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
-18.411 | 99.7% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-19.191 | 81.0% | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
-19.684 | 20.0% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
-20.954 | 97.6% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-23.521 | 44.5% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-31.496 | 71.8% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
-32.716 | 95.9% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
-39.352 | 34.7% | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
-40.260 | 39.6% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-43.215 | 95.6% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
-43.751 | 99.8% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
-47.662 | 95.5% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-50.656 | 99.8% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |