89.692 | 98.9% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
51.233 | 82.5% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
50.742 | 99.6% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
46.415 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
44.185 | 93.1% | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
38.249 | 92.0% | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
36.406 | 85.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
30.795 | 93.0% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
30.190 | 97.8% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
25.866 | 47.2% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka? | Multiple Choice |
23.332 | 31.8% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
22.787 | 37.6% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
22.053 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
21.861 | 37.6% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
20.770 | 44.1% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
20.099 | 95.8% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
18.906 | 37.5% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
18.408 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
18.228 | 67.5% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
17.476 | 88.8% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.636 | 34.7% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.163 | 91.2% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.143 | 46.1% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
16.102 | 37.6% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
15.910 | 67.0% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
15.163 | 83.5% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.102 | 38.7% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
14.866 | 91.7% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.457 | 99.5% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
14.360 | 37.6% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
13.861 | 37.6% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
13.687 | 37.3% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
12.675 | 69.1% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
11.530 | 37.4% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
11.309 | 22.1% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
11.103 | 33.3% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
10.972 | 40.9% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.615 | 37.6% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
10.470 | 37.6% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
10.216 | 49.3% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
10.093 | 77.8% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
9.942 | 37.6% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
9.362 | 11.7% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
9.226 | 62.4% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.183 | 34.7% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
9.012 | 44.5% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
8.970 | 38.7% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
7.922 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
7.814 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
7.564 | 90.9% | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.506 | 55.3% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.300 | 36.2% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
6.589 | 33.4% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
6.486 | 37.6% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
6.401 | 97.8% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.261 | 95.0% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.100 | 93.0% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
6.092 | 64.8% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
5.979 | 51.5% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
5.363 | 94.4% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.050 | 100.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
5.004 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
4.939 | 29.7% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.792 | 74.1% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.040 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
4.038 | 11.7% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
3.550 | 42.7% | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria? | Multiple Choice |
3.201 | 91.7% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.088 | 22.5% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
3.011 | 8.0% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
2.936 | 37.6% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
2.788 | 88.7% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
2.005 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
2.003 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.959 | 73.2% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
1.844 | 10.6% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
1.661 | 31.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
1.646 | 89.9% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.424 | 6.3% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
1.422 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
1.399 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
1.340 | 27.3% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
1.292 | 65.5% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
0.990 | 1.6% | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
0.783 | 85.9% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
0.778 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.748 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.532 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.482 | 97.8% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.374 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.307 | 97.1% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
0.301 | 79.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.262 | 73.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.259 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.240 | 83.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.032 | 1.1% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
0.001 | 0.0% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-0.550 | 84.0% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.694 | 97.0% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
-1.239 | 26.7% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
-2.946 | 64.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-3.834 | 6.3% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-8.523 | 22.5% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
-9.111 | 65.7% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
-10.678 | 40.9% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-14.664 | 76.6% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
-17.545 | 79.7% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
-17.782 | 84.0% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-34.671 | 24.1% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
-37.640 | 16.6% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-89.091 | 93.1% | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |