92.108 | 89.1% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
82.069 | 78.2% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
64.696 | 93.9% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
62.137 | 94.4% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
54.979 | 85.6% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
50.815 | 84.4% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
45.826 | 94.4% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
45.276 | 91.6% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
44.907 | 72.7% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
38.446 | 89.6% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.368 | 91.5% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
33.987 | 93.7% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
33.029 | 84.8% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
32.064 | 91.2% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
31.266 | 89.8% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
30.594 | 78.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
30.252 | 81.4% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
30.015 | 94.4% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
29.319 | 99.6% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
28.648 | 54.3% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
28.000 | 94.4% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
27.880 | 74.4% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
26.658 | 94.4% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
23.270 | 99.8% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
23.166 | 94.4% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
23.084 | 56.6% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
22.550 | 26.2% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
22.383 | 86.5% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
22.255 | 94.4% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
21.804 | 68.6% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
21.542 | 94.4% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
19.704 | 91.3% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
19.583 | 94.4% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
18.363 | 86.7% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
17.710 | 94.4% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
17.605 | 65.2% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
17.245 | 94.4% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
17.179 | 94.4% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
17.031 | 84.3% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
16.288 | 93.7% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.108 | 94.8% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
16.064 | 56.6% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.852 | 88.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.647 | 97.6% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
14.520 | 83.5% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
14.244 | 49.8% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
14.234 | 94.4% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
14.197 | 94.4% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
14.106 | 30.0% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.067 | 89.5% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
13.747 | 94.4% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
13.448 | 94.4% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
13.377 | 45.0% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
13.037 | 43.6% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
12.367 | 88.6% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
12.239 | 72.7% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.587 | 51.2% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.475 | 93.4% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
11.266 | 78.3% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
11.144 | 28.3% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
11.088 | 93.6% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.869 | 94.4% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
10.800 | 90.3% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
10.449 | 96.5% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.295 | 79.9% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.092 | 79.9% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
9.807 | 36.9% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.878 | 40.4% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
8.432 | 40.1% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
8.423 | 94.4% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
8.363 | 79.6% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
8.278 | 94.4% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
8.261 | 98.6% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.204 | 85.0% | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
7.983 | 92.5% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
7.830 | 29.7% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
7.667 | 16.6% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.203 | 15.8% | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
7.069 | 42.2% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
6.804 | 63.5% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.548 | 59.9% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.048 | 92.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
5.994 | 49.3% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
5.950 | 94.4% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
5.919 | 91.0% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.677 | 93.0% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.566 | 81.0% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.518 | 81.3% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.114 | 64.3% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
4.914 | 28.3% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
4.867 | 82.2% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
4.828 | 48.9% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.809 | 77.7% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
4.443 | 93.2% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.290 | 93.8% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
4.286 | 62.9% | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
3.998 | 4.5% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
3.729 | 90.9% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.250 | 93.7% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.731 | 8.9% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
1.230 | 66.5% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
1.140 | 26.7% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.017 | 12.8% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.975 | 94.4% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
0.880 | 81.7% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
0.825 | 59.7% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.657 | 85.9% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.605 | 6.7% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
0.383 | 1.1% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.160 | 0.8% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
-0.283 | 92.5% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-0.403 | 96.1% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
-0.729 | 56.3% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
-1.098 | 82.7% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
-3.055 | 95.8% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-4.019 | 30.2% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-4.673 | 99.8% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.492 | 61.4% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
-7.350 | 98.4% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
-7.447 | 94.4% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
-7.614 | 90.0% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
-9.974 | 56.2% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-13.129 | 88.5% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
-13.401 | 94.4% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
-15.664 | 90.5% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
-20.229 | 65.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-22.833 | 99.8% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-31.924 | 93.9% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
-50.528 | 94.2% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
-58.964 | 83.5% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-64.885 | 73.0% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-124.196 | 98.6% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |