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🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

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Duration:1 year
Time Period:2024
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.
Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.
11.11Weighted Average Score
ScoreCoverageQuestionQuestion Type
60.74594.3%Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?Binary
53.75294.0%Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?Binary
50.43594.3%Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?Binary
46.32794.3%Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?Binary
44.73994.3%Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?Binary
38.54394.3%Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?Binary
30.53086.3%Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?Multiple Choice
30.32656.0%Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?Binary
29.93294.3%Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?Binary
27.84894.3%Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?Binary
27.20994.3%Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?Binary
23.40594.3%Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?Binary
20.95994.3%In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?Binary
16.30856.2%Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?Binary
14.13294.3%Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?Binary
13.87894.3%Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?Binary
13.12994.3%Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?Binary
12.42194.3%Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?Binary
12.32794.3%Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?Binary
11.17794.3%Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?Binary
10.55894.3%Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?Binary
9.04215.7%Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?Binary
8.62942.0%Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?Binary
8.11494.3%Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?Binary
5.64894.3%Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?Binary
-20.63993.3%Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?Multiple Choice
-35.34094.3%Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?Binary
-35.91772.5%Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?Binary
-37.13194.3%Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?Binary
-38.65694.3%Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?Binary
-44.97292.3%Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?Binary
-74.07993.7%Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?Binary