162.265 | 91.6% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
73.411 | 65.6% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
68.123 | 92.0% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
67.834 | 94.4% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
54.486 | 93.6% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
51.801 | 93.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
48.429 | 69.5% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
46.781 | 59.8% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
44.961 | 81.3% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
43.927 | 88.3% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
43.036 | 94.9% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
40.357 | 85.1% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
37.727 | 93.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
36.261 | 81.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
35.961 | 96.1% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
35.201 | 76.3% | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
33.459 | 81.9% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
33.123 | 73.4% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
32.549 | 81.9% | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
32.008 | 71.0% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
31.974 | 72.4% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
31.314 | 86.5% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
30.715 | 93.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
27.702 | 70.7% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
27.329 | 81.9% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
27.026 | 99.4% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
25.807 | 78.8% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
25.406 | 81.9% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
24.821 | 95.0% | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
23.844 | 80.2% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
23.100 | 72.5% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
22.917 | 80.2% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
22.761 | 81.9% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
22.690 | 81.9% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
22.274 | 58.1% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
21.252 | 81.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
21.187 | 93.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
20.893 | 78.0% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
20.270 | 27.4% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
17.698 | 81.9% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
17.411 | 81.9% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
17.105 | 77.6% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.939 | 42.9% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
16.928 | 49.1% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
16.540 | 35.5% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
16.076 | 49.3% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
15.668 | 80.8% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
14.713 | 82.7% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.889 | 84.5% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
13.735 | 81.9% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
13.711 | 88.4% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
12.719 | 40.5% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
12.551 | 83.7% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
12.527 | 72.3% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.732 | 76.6% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
11.673 | 55.1% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
11.014 | 76.9% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
10.653 | 91.7% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.486 | 91.6% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
10.027 | 81.9% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
9.740 | 38.7% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.628 | 90.9% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.465 | 20.0% | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
9.380 | 76.0% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.333 | 67.7% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
8.958 | 74.2% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
8.827 | 25.9% | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
8.753 | 16.6% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
8.697 | 55.7% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
8.461 | 72.4% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.239 | 87.8% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
8.237 | 96.1% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
8.227 | 99.4% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
8.203 | 81.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
8.183 | 29.5% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
8.112 | 95.7% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.048 | 11.1% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
7.938 | 44.9% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
7.607 | 43.8% | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
7.593 | 96.9% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
7.298 | 90.0% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
6.898 | 97.3% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.329 | 66.2% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.160 | 72.3% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
6.015 | 58.2% | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
5.990 | 17.7% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
5.470 | 6.5% | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
5.447 | 81.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
4.560 | 54.2% | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
4.550 | 58.2% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
4.223 | 49.5% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.145 | 97.9% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
4.134 | 81.9% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
3.922 | 93.9% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
3.678 | 43.5% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
3.599 | 7.1% | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.574 | 84.2% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.418 | 73.6% | Will gang leader JosĂ© Adolfo MacĂas Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.402 | 58.3% | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
3.345 | 85.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
3.213 | 93.9% | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
3.112 | 39.9% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
2.979 | 82.5% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.842 | 31.9% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.818 | 22.7% | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
2.697 | 93.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
2.662 | 8.6% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.247 | 83.9% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.011 | 65.5% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
0.944 | 6.2% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
0.619 | 20.3% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
0.532 | 12.8% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.477 | 50.5% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.453 | 6.1% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.391 | 23.9% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.131 | 93.6% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
0.120 | 24.8% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-0.075 | 81.1% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
-0.166 | 90.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
-0.916 | 53.1% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
-1.378 | 88.3% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-1.700 | 97.0% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.045 | 55.9% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
-2.203 | 91.1% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
-2.292 | 67.2% | How much will it rain in BrasĂlia, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
-2.470 | 59.7% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.470 | 96.1% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-2.810 | 32.2% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
-2.942 | 6.7% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
-3.163 | 43.2% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-5.413 | 83.9% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-6.528 | 98.0% | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
-6.667 | 27.8% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
-7.590 | 95.7% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-8.669 | 73.6% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-12.579 | 46.8% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
-14.388 | 90.7% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
-15.441 | 95.7% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
-17.996 | 14.0% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-18.359 | 68.2% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-18.800 | 70.7% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-19.629 | 100.0% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
-20.794 | 50.0% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
-20.928 | 92.4% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
-21.895 | 94.1% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
-23.131 | 89.6% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
-25.534 | 83.1% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
-28.384 | 81.9% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-51.178 | 80.5% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
-55.816 | 97.8% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |