107.104 | 99.6% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Libertés, Indépendants, OutreMer, Territoires) | Continuous |
106.356 | 99.3% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
100.986 | 100.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
97.109 | 99.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Ecologistes) | Continuous |
96.312 | 99.8% | How Many States Will Split the Senate-Presidential Ticket in the 2024 US Election? | Multiple Choice |
95.856 | 100.0% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
87.095 | 83.6% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
85.018 | 98.3% | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
83.799 | 97.4% | What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election? | Continuous |
77.329 | 97.2% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
72.643 | 99.4% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
71.850 | 100.0% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
71.125 | 98.4% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
69.520 | 99.8% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
65.139 | 99.1% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
63.887 | 100.0% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
63.765 | 99.9% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
59.009 | 99.3% | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
56.830 | 90.3% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
55.601 | 100.0% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
54.796 | 99.7% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
54.325 | 100.0% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
51.609 | 100.0% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
50.013 | 99.5% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Communiste) | Continuous |
48.823 | 79.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
48.538 | 100.0% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
47.613 | 100.0% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
46.845 | 100.0% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
46.467 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
46.153 | 100.0% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
45.391 | 98.0% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
44.045 | 96.1% | Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections? | Binary |
43.491 | 96.8% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
42.528 | 97.4% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
42.194 | 99.7% | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
42.004 | 100.0% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
41.962 | 75.8% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
40.544 | 100.0% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
39.945 | 99.6% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Renaissance) | Continuous |
39.881 | 100.0% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
39.326 | 54.3% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
38.216 | 81.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
38.203 | 90.0% | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
37.897 | 100.0% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
37.397 | 99.6% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Socialiste) | Continuous |
36.439 | 99.6% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (La France Insoumise) | Continuous |
35.518 | 100.0% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
34.558 | 99.7% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
34.416 | 97.8% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
33.246 | 99.6% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Les Républicains) | Continuous |
32.822 | 99.6% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
32.334 | 89.1% | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
32.258 | 84.2% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
32.101 | 96.6% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
31.970 | 99.9% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
31.488 | 59.0% | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
30.934 | 100.0% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
30.368 | 71.8% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
30.280 | 99.9% | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
30.151 | 89.9% | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
29.944 | 99.8% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
29.920 | 100.0% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
29.734 | 100.0% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.833 | 100.0% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
28.627 | 81.2% | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
28.045 | 82.4% | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
27.744 | 77.7% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
27.729 | 100.0% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
27.716 | 84.1% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
27.419 | 98.1% | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
26.938 | 91.8% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
26.826 | 100.0% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
26.768 | 52.3% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
26.751 | 73.2% | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
26.735 | 98.6% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
26.112 | 100.0% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
25.307 | 73.5% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
25.163 | 77.4% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
25.114 | 100.0% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
24.303 | 99.5% | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.300 | 100.0% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
24.260 | 81.5% | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
23.872 | 100.0% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
23.850 | 100.0% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
23.551 | 79.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
23.340 | 99.4% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
22.578 | 100.0% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
21.960 | 99.0% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
21.570 | 92.6% | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
21.232 | 25.0% | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
20.616 | 82.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
20.605 | 78.8% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
20.231 | 98.9% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
19.868 | 99.7% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
19.843 | 100.0% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
19.759 | 97.5% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
19.697 | 45.1% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.669 | 100.0% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
19.627 | 99.6% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
19.623 | 82.2% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
19.527 | 99.6% | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
19.243 | 52.7% | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
19.200 | 99.9% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
18.852 | 31.8% | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
18.803 | 87.9% | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
18.763 | 84.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Other parties and independents) | Continuous |
18.663 | 84.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Economic Freedom Fighters) | Continuous |
18.330 | 99.9% | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
18.235 | 74.0% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
18.213 | 99.6% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
17.688 | 82.2% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
17.678 | 90.5% | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
17.565 | 91.5% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
17.426 | 100.0% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
16.980 | 99.8% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
16.701 | 44.3% | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.640 | 100.0% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.623 | 100.0% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
16.603 | 84.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (uMkhonto we Sizwe) | Continuous |
16.497 | 73.0% | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
16.338 | 98.1% | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
15.530 | 100.0% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.528 | 99.9% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
15.134 | 100.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
15.002 | 97.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
14.809 | 100.0% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
14.447 | 100.0% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
14.155 | 94.1% | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
13.927 | 53.6% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
13.831 | 45.1% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
13.737 | 28.0% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
13.672 | 100.0% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.631 | 9.5% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
13.382 | 48.1% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
13.107 | 90.2% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
12.868 | 27.9% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
12.868 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
12.744 | 100.0% | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
12.650 | 53.4% | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
12.360 | 100.0% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.297 | 12.6% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
12.099 | 30.8% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
11.437 | 99.3% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
11.268 | 99.8% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
11.105 | 98.6% | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
10.833 | 100.0% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
10.761 | 77.0% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
10.675 | 40.7% | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.655 | 80.7% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
10.262 | 100.0% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
10.246 | 68.2% | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
9.279 | 100.0% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
9.203 | 74.0% | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
9.125 | 77.4% | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
8.916 | 99.7% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.760 | 99.8% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.237 | 100.0% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.071 | 84.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Democratic Alliance) | Continuous |
7.912 | 99.6% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Démocrates (Modem and independents)) | Continuous |
7.894 | 13.4% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
7.847 | 100.0% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.827 | 5.9% | When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs? | Multiple Choice |
7.782 | 99.4% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
7.676 | 11.0% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
7.623 | 99.8% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
7.348 | 99.2% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
7.347 | 100.0% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.241 | 45.5% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
7.236 | 99.9% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
7.191 | 100.0% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
7.141 | 39.6% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
7.018 | 100.0% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
6.714 | 73.5% | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
6.635 | 99.4% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.634 | 76.1% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
6.602 | 12.1% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
6.588 | 100.0% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.392 | 40.0% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
6.334 | 89.3% | Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? (No) → Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? | Binary |
6.250 | 88.6% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
6.148 | 99.4% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.087 | 82.1% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
5.985 | 37.3% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.955 | 84.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (African National Congress) | Continuous |
5.844 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.797 | 100.0% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.743 | 100.0% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
5.588 | 46.8% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.343 | 100.0% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
5.272 | 11.0% | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
5.216 | 98.2% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
5.209 | 51.0% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
5.058 | 98.7% | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
5.037 | 37.5% | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.012 | 63.6% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.993 | 89.4% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
4.911 | 59.9% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
4.754 | 100.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.695 | 77.4% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
4.638 | 100.0% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
4.556 | 7.2% | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
4.314 | 100.0% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
4.118 | 100.0% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
4.064 | 100.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
4.018 | 100.0% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.733 | 99.7% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
3.651 | 99.6% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Non affiliated) | Continuous |
3.606 | 88.6% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
3.545 | 69.7% | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
3.493 | 100.0% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.358 | 9.4% | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
3.216 | 100.0% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
2.882 | 3.3% | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | Binary |
2.873 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
2.835 | 10.7% | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
2.828 | 88.6% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
2.802 | 88.6% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
2.692 | 85.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
2.081 | 100.0% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
2.020 | 20.4% | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
1.990 | 100.0% | How many of these Cabinet ministers will fail to be re-elected to the House of Commons at the next UK election? | Continuous |
1.937 | 26.4% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
1.852 | 99.8% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
1.355 | 15.5% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
1.319 | 83.6% | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
1.312 | 2.7% | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.285 | 100.0% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
1.087 | 0.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
1.057 | 9.5% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.961 | 3.7% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.961 | 3.6% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.557 | 67.9% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
0.452 | 1.4% | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
0.407 | 99.9% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.286 | 1.8% | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
0.263 | 53.1% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
0.196 | 9.6% | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
0.153 | 0.7% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.285 | 84.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (African Christian Democratic Party) | Continuous |
-0.448 | 57.9% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
-0.486 | 100.0% | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-0.632 | 88.6% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
-1.049 | 33.1% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
-1.228 | 43.8% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-1.260 | 8.8% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
-1.440 | 100.0% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
-2.178 | 7.8% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-2.280 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
-2.347 | 98.4% | [Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly? | Binary |
-2.548 | 99.9% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.903 | 99.9% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
-2.990 | 84.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Freedom Front Plus) | Continuous |
-3.356 | 99.6% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National) | Continuous |
-3.674 | 47.9% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
-3.917 | 14.6% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-4.037 | 100.0% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.129 | 45.9% | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
-4.141 | 84.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Inkatha Freedom Party) | Continuous |
-4.147 | 5.9% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
-4.149 | 59.7% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
-4.676 | 39.7% | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
-4.762 | 89.2% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
-5.053 | 40.3% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.253 | 69.9% | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
-5.784 | 100.0% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
-6.671 | 99.6% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Horizons) | Continuous |
-7.769 | 55.9% | Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community? | Continuous |
-9.999 | 96.2% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-12.910 | 99.7% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
-13.433 | 100.0% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
-14.061 | 93.8% | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
-14.117 | 100.0% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
-14.723 | 98.6% | What vote percentage will Sadiq Khan win in the 2024 London mayoral election? | Continuous |
-15.273 | 89.4% | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
-15.720 | 97.4% | Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election? | Binary |
-18.037 | 100.0% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-20.821 | 96.8% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-21.104 | 33.4% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-22.324 | 44.0% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
-22.996 | 46.9% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
-24.315 | 100.0% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
-26.621 | 99.7% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
-26.767 | 34.6% | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
-30.219 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
-34.229 | 100.0% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
-34.791 | 81.5% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
-35.860 | 96.8% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
-36.742 | 100.0% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
-42.761 | 84.7% | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (ActionSA) | Continuous |
-64.215 | 68.2% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
-69.468 | 100.0% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
-92.902 | 99.7% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-107.708 | 95.0% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |