81.906 | 81.4% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
67.065 | 94.8% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
64.727 | 82.3% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
43.176 | 92.7% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
40.701 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
37.316 | 97.6% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
36.705 | 97.9% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
29.546 | 70.3% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
26.832 | 98.5% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
25.946 | 74.9% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
25.886 | 64.8% | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
25.505 | 81.0% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
24.106 | 49.7% | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
23.938 | 28.1% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
23.856 | 64.8% | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
23.412 | 74.9% | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
21.419 | 65.5% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
21.417 | 84.6% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
20.698 | 80.0% | Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election? | Binary |
20.364 | 61.6% | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
20.346 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
20.073 | 64.7% | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
19.417 | 75.0% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
19.321 | 74.8% | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (National Democratic Alliance (NDA)) | Continuous |
18.764 | 98.6% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
17.461 | 64.8% | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
16.335 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
15.775 | 66.0% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
15.402 | 68.5% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.125 | 70.3% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
14.813 | 74.8% | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Indian Nat.Development Inclusive All. (INDIA)) | Continuous |
14.710 | 98.1% | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
14.254 | 58.7% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
14.246 | 79.6% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
14.242 | 37.1% | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
13.857 | 47.3% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.787 | 11.7% | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
13.287 | 76.5% | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
13.021 | 96.8% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
13.020 | 69.4% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
12.730 | 56.0% | What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)? | Continuous |
12.275 | 19.1% | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
12.030 | 67.1% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
12.009 | 37.4% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.530 | 74.9% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
11.187 | 81.9% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
10.918 | 41.0% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.233 | 74.9% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
9.936 | 86.5% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
9.902 | 97.0% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
9.456 | 47.7% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
9.359 | 63.0% | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
9.287 | 64.8% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
8.860 | 15.2% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
8.301 | 43.0% | What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024? | Continuous |
7.826 | 10.3% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
7.478 | 66.1% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
7.161 | 27.5% | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
6.562 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
6.477 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
5.959 | 26.3% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
5.797 | 53.1% | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
5.604 | 52.9% | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
5.339 | 59.6% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
5.272 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
5.227 | 74.9% | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
5.041 | 61.4% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
4.957 | 87.6% | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
4.885 | 61.5% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
4.756 | 98.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.314 | 99.0% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
4.294 | 13.4% | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
3.878 | 74.8% | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
3.809 | 47.4% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
3.755 | 12.4% | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
3.705 | 57.8% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
3.650 | 11.6% | What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament? | Multiple Choice |
3.644 | 97.0% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
3.207 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
2.766 | 15.3% | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
2.393 | 4.7% | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
2.303 | 91.4% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
2.249 | 70.1% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.069 | 29.4% | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.625 | 94.5% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.618 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.345 | 99.7% | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
1.257 | 96.0% | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
1.173 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
1.159 | 64.5% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
1.147 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
0.913 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
0.809 | 58.7% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.662 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.630 | 4.2% | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.518 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.436 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.274 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.254 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.249 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.229 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.229 | 72.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
-1.551 | 56.0% | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
-3.194 | 6.4% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
-3.862 | 97.0% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
-4.611 | 69.9% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
-5.047 | 95.5% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-13.365 | 95.4% | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
-15.890 | 99.2% | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
-19.130 | 83.6% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
-27.424 | 99.0% | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
-56.574 | 99.5% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
-81.198 | 30.6% | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |