180.028 | 99.2% | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
96.264 | 98.4% | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
64.993 | 98.1% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
59.146 | 61.2% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
58.061 | 97.9% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
54.182 | 99.3% | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
51.213 | 99.8% | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
48.775 | 85.7% | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
47.208 | 92.3% | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
45.802 | 99.7% | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
45.475 | 99.8% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
42.648 | 99.5% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
42.049 | 98.1% | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
39.573 | 99.3% | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
37.624 | 84.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
37.276 | 91.4% | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
36.915 | 98.7% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
36.789 | 92.5% | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
36.281 | 88.8% | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
36.034 | 99.3% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
33.674 | 81.1% | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
32.606 | 97.7% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
31.380 | 93.3% | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
30.829 | 99.6% | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
29.228 | 97.4% | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
27.763 | 99.0% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
25.834 | 93.3% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.994 | 99.9% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
24.959 | 99.8% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
24.803 | 98.5% | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
24.566 | 99.5% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
24.366 | 99.4% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
23.865 | 98.9% | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
23.005 | 98.0% | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
22.808 | 90.7% | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
22.290 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
21.982 | 98.1% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
21.684 | 99.4% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
21.633 | 99.0% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
20.545 | 99.8% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
20.178 | 99.7% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.028 | 97.5% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
19.313 | 88.2% | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
18.539 | 99.7% | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
18.392 | 85.9% | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
18.389 | 40.1% | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.199 | 85.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
18.179 | 31.1% | What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)? | Continuous |
18.036 | 62.4% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.892 | 99.6% | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
17.723 | 95.5% | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
17.303 | 87.3% | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
17.199 | 99.9% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.794 | 90.3% | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
16.633 | 50.6% | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
16.379 | 81.7% | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
16.117 | 92.2% | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
15.852 | 43.6% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
15.618 | 99.9% | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
15.531 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
15.309 | 95.9% | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
15.083 | 79.0% | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
14.676 | 99.8% | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
14.519 | 99.7% | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
14.374 | 45.3% | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
14.330 | 98.8% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
14.325 | 39.6% | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.233 | 97.4% | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
14.167 | 87.3% | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
14.162 | 95.5% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
14.049 | 99.2% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.012 | 99.8% | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
13.386 | 97.3% | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
13.319 | 43.0% | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
12.457 | 100.0% | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
12.424 | 80.6% | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
12.318 | 99.4% | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
11.948 | 99.2% | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
11.684 | 99.9% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.652 | 90.4% | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
11.125 | 97.2% | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
11.090 | 37.0% | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
10.737 | 97.6% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
10.000 | 99.4% | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
9.950 | 23.8% | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
9.789 | 27.4% | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
9.710 | 76.2% | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
9.196 | 97.7% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.813 | 99.7% | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.271 | 99.7% | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
7.156 | 12.5% | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
7.019 | 96.5% | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
6.971 | 91.9% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
6.964 | 43.7% | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
6.905 | 96.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
6.878 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
6.606 | 99.7% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
6.577 | 32.9% | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
6.170 | 98.6% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
5.926 | 50.7% | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
5.869 | 88.8% | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
5.474 | 8.4% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
5.156 | 72.2% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.890 | 39.7% | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
4.803 | 90.7% | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
4.678 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
4.567 | 97.7% | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.417 | 99.9% | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
4.377 | 96.9% | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.118 | 99.1% | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
3.727 | 99.6% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
3.676 | 99.1% | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
3.617 | 56.4% | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.511 | 98.9% | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
3.294 | 75.6% | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
3.254 | 96.1% | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
2.899 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
2.663 | 96.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
2.652 | 14.0% | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
2.603 | 97.4% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
2.548 | 95.0% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.134 | 94.9% | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
2.108 | 13.5% | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
1.767 | 96.6% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
1.748 | 2.2% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
1.521 | 2.2% | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
1.511 | 33.3% | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
1.487 | 5.8% | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
1.416 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
1.341 | 96.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
1.273 | 37.4% | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.254 | 87.0% | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
0.794 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.573 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.555 | 11.0% | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
0.553 | 92.5% | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
0.322 | 84.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.314 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.272 | 83.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.265 | 78.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.161 | 83.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.141 | 99.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-0.055 | 0.3% | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
-0.094 | 94.2% | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
-0.218 | 95.6% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
-0.624 | 36.7% | Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election? | Binary |
-2.620 | 97.7% | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.637 | 98.5% | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
-3.286 | 65.7% | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
-3.362 | 98.5% | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
-3.562 | 12.1% | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
-3.937 | 99.4% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-4.086 | 21.7% | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
-5.403 | 92.8% | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
-7.283 | 98.0% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-10.139 | 57.7% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
-12.700 | 96.5% | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-21.208 | 43.8% | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
-37.316 | 92.1% | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
-45.522 | 75.2% | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
-49.249 | 96.0% | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
-70.903 | 92.2% | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
-109.947 | 99.6% | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
-124.295 | 69.2% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |