plu1324

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Duration:1 year
Time Period:2025
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
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28.27
Weighted Average Score
ScoreCoverageQuestionQuestion Type
124.88394.7%Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?Continuous
83.25679.8%How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)Continuous
69.89099.0%How many parties will be in the next German parliament?Multiple Choice
67.49493.5%How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?Multiple Choice
67.44882.1%Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?Binary
62.62384.1%Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?Binary
62.48099.5%What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?Continuous
61.94978.4%What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?Continuous
61.09176.9%How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?Continuous
57.06598.9%What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?Continuous
55.91388.5%Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?Multiple Choice
37.54430.8%What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?Continuous
36.89780.9%Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?Binary
26.47585.5%Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?Binary
26.36426.1%How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?Multiple Choice
25.70683.4%Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?Binary
24.38625.9%What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?Multiple Choice
17.89296.5%Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?Multiple Choice
15.46760.3%Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?Binary
11.67717.8%Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))Binary
10.02516.0%Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))Binary
7.86710.0%Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?Binary
5.60218.7%Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?Binary
4.95447.7%How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)Continuous
3.85313.0%How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)Continuous
-316.71993.9%Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))Binary

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