Greenei

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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31.95		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
147.673	99.1%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
108.079	99.1%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
107.458	99.5%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
102.534	91.9%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
96.661	91.2%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
95.081	97.4%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
94.254	99.1%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
91.498	98.8%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
85.747	99.3%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
82.661	99.2%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
82.076	99.5%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
81.000	99.3%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
70.749	99.6%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
65.804	99.6%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
62.460	99.4%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
60.878	99.2%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
47.975	99.3%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
46.219	92.0%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
45.918	98.5%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
39.581	99.6%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
39.042	99.3%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
38.099	88.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
37.923	82.3%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
30.992	99.6%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
30.027	83.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
28.911	88.0%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
26.413	75.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
22.852	91.5%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
22.272	82.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
21.236	82.2%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
19.608	99.2%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
19.257	92.2%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
17.675	99.4%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
14.841	99.0%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
8.010	88.0%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
1.883	2.3%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-16.308	91.5%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-32.032	99.0%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-36.967	93.0%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-59.790	91.3%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-70.173	81.6%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-85.331	99.4%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-109.212	92.6%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-113.581	99.2%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-135.555	99.1%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous

Greenei

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