LachieGall

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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19.14		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
133.982	78.7%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
116.979	85.9%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
114.333	78.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
80.458	77.5%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
57.011	75.6%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
42.931	59.7%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
15.109	76.7%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
13.511	53.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
11.401	29.3%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
6.698	65.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
2.877	65.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous

LachieGall

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