Question

Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?

Resolved :No

15 comments15

Total Forecasters66

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

84.0

Community Peer Score

13.8

median 1.0%mean 3.0%

Authors:

evanbd

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Economy & Business

Technology

Anti-satellite weapon

Physics

Military science

War in Donbass

Aerospace engineering

Ukraine

Russia

Plans to Destroy the International Space Station Preview a Bigger Orbital Junk Problem

Scientific American•Oct 28, 2024

China Threatens ‘Countermeasures’ After Taiwan Scores U.S. Arms Deal

Breitbart•Oct 29, 2024

Putin rehearses nuclear WAR: Russia gives terrifying glimpse of WW3 onset by testing missiles capable of unleashing 'massive nuclear strike'

Daily Mail•Oct 30, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

28%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

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