Question

Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?

Resolved :No

15 comments15

Total Forecasters66

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

84.0

Community Peer Score

13.8

median 1.0%mean 3.0%

Authors:

evanbd

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Economy & Business

Technology

Anti-satellite weapon

Physics

Military science

War in Donbass

Aerospace engineering

Ukraine

Russia

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

29.7%

Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

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