Question

Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?

Resolved :No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters255

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

82.7

Community Peer Score

16.2

median 1.0%mean 2.1%

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Belarus–Russia relations

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

New START

Ukraine

Russia

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

30%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

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