Question

Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?

Resolved :No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters255

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

82.7

Community Peer Score

16.2

median 1.0%mean 2.1%

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Belarus–Russia relations

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

New START

Ukraine

Russia

Putin fine-tunes Russia’s nuclear doctrine after Biden’s arms decision on Ukraine, in clear signal to West

CNN•Nov 19, 2024

Putin Updates Russian Nuclear Doctrine in Missile Strike Warning

Breitbart•Nov 19, 2024

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

30%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

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