Question

Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?

Resolved :No1%

12 comments12

Total Forecasters255

Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 1%

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82.7

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16.2

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Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Belarus–Russia relations

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

New START

Ukraine

Russia

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•Dec 19, 2024

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Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

19%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Belarus–Russia relations

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

New START

Ukraine

Russia

Putin challenges the West to a 'high-tech missile DUEL': President suggests giving advance notice of a hypersonic Oreshnik attack to see 'if they can stop it in time' during annual news conference

•Dec 19, 2024

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

19%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

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Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?

Make a Prediction

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Comments

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?