Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?

Resolved :No1%
15
40
Total Forecasters383
Community Prediction1% (1% - 5%)

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50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
-1.0
Community Peer Score
58.3
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Gaia
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
2022 Leaderboard
Chernihiv
Ministry of Defence (Russia)
Ukrainian Ground Forces
Ukraine
Russia

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