Question

Will Finland join NATO before 2024?

Resolved :Yes

128 comments128

Total Forecasters879

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

46.9

Community Peer Score

17.2

median 99.0%mean 96.3%

Authors:

moscars

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Finland

NATO

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

25%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

moscars

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Finland

NATO

America's NATO Ally Warns Ukraine Membership May Trigger World War III

Newsweek•Oct 10, 2024

NATO Allies Massively Beefing Up Bloc's Eastern Flank

Newsweek•Oct 12, 2024

Russia could be able to attack NATO by 2030: German intelligence

Raw Story•Oct 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

25%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%