Question

Will Finland join NATO before 2024?

Resolved :Yes

128 comments128

Total Forecasters879

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

46.9

Community Peer Score

17.2

median 99.0%mean 96.3%

Authors:

moscars

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Finland

NATO

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

24%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

moscars

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Finland

NATO

Five Things Trump Has Said About NATO

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia

•Nov 17, 2024

NATO members Sweden and Finland advise citizens on how to survive war

CNN•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

24%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%