Question

Will Finland join NATO before 2024?

Resolved :Yes

128 comments128

Total Forecasters879

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

46.9

Community Peer Score

17.2

median 99.0%mean 96.3%

Authors:

moscars

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Finland

NATO

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

25%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

moscars

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Finland

NATO

Ukraine’s ‘victory plan’ receives mixed reactions from Western allies

Associated Press•Oct 20, 2024

US Ready to Back Ukraine's NATO Bid: Report

Newsweek•Oct 20, 2024

The Nukes or NATO: The Hidden Threat Behind Zelensky’s Victory Plan

AntiWar•Oct 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

25%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%