Question

Will Finland join NATO before 2024?

Resolved :Yes

128 comments128

Total Forecasters879

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

46.9

Community Peer Score

17.2

median 99.0%mean 96.3%

Authors:

moscars

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Finland

NATO

Beyond “Trump-Proofing”: NATO’s Real Adversaries

•Nov 13, 2024

Five Things Trump Has Said About NATO

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia

•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

24%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Comments

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