Question

Will Finland join NATO before 2024?

Resolved :Yes99%

128 comments128

Total Forecasters879

Community Prediction99% (98% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

46.9

Community Peer Score

17.2

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Authors:

moscars

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Finland

NATO

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Newsweek•Dec 14, 2024

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Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

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Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

25%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

moscars

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Finland

NATO

Map Shows Possible WWIII Frontlines if Russia Invaded Europe

Newsweek•Dec 14, 2024

NATO nations are reportedly in talks to boost defense spending amid Trump's return to power

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Russia Warns Of NATO War Within 10 Years

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

25%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

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Will Finland join NATO before 2024?

Make a Prediction

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Comments

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?