Question

Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018?

Resolved :Yes

19 comments19

Total Forecasters112

Community Prediction90%

Make a Prediction

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

56.4

Community Peer Score

4.0

median 90.0%mean 83.2%

Authors:

Fruo

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

Anthony Kennedy

Donald Trump

US Senate

In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, how many US Supreme Court Justices will have been appointed by him on January 21, 2029?

Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Fruo

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

Anthony Kennedy

Donald Trump

US Senate

A new Supreme Court term begins in the shadow of a presidential election

PBS NewsHour•Oct 8, 2024

New allegations about Kavanaugh’s FBI probe spark awkward questions

MSNBC•Oct 9, 2024

Brett Kavanaugh Investigation by FBI 'Manipulated,' New Report Finds

Newsweek•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, how many US Supreme Court Justices will have been appointed by him on January 21, 2029?

Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?

12%