Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?

Resolved :No30%
10
Total Forecasters50
Community Prediction30% (21% - 37%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
43.0
Community Peer Score
17.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
White Hat Cyber
Politics
Computing and Math
Technology
2022 Leaderboard
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
Information theory
Internet protocol suite
North Korea

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