Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?

Resolved :No1%
7
5
Total Forecasters95
Community Prediction1% (1% - 1.6%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
66.3
Community Peer Score
15.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
White Hat Cyber
Geopolitics
Politics
Computing and Math
Technology
2022 Leaderboard
China
Tamkang University
Five Eyes
United States Department of Homeland Security
Taiwan–US relations
US Department of State
Ukraine–NATO relations
Taiwan

Comments

? comments