Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?

Resolved :No41%
5
13
Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction41% (21% - 44%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 41%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
-0.3
Community Peer Score
12.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
White Hat Cyber
Politics
Computing and Math
2022 Leaderboard
Proprietary software
FireEye
SolarWinds
Russia

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