Question

Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?

Resolved :No

13 comments13

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction41%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 41%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-0.3

Community Peer Score

12.8

median 41.0%mean 34.2%

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Major Chinese Cyberespionage Targeting US Telecom Networks Uncovered by FBI

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

China Penetrated US Telecom Providers to Snoop on Wiretapping Systems

•Nov 15, 2024

5 Things To Know On The China-Linked ISP Hack

•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Major Chinese Cyberespionage Targeting US Telecom Networks Uncovered by FBI

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

China Penetrated US Telecom Providers to Snoop on Wiretapping Systems

•Nov 15, 2024

5 Things To Know On The China-Linked ISP Hack

•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch