Question

Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?

Resolved :No16%

5 comments5

Total Forecasters59

Community Prediction16% (1% - 27%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 16%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

35.5

Community Peer Score

21.9

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Major international figures who died in 2024

FOX News•Dec 16, 2024

Rhode Island says personal data likely breached in social services cyberattack

TechCrunch•Dec 16, 2024

How the ransomware attack at Change Healthcare went down: A timeline

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

0.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Major international figures who died in 2024

FOX News•Dec 16, 2024

Rhode Island says personal data likely breached in social services cyberattack

TechCrunch•Dec 16, 2024

How the ransomware attack at Change Healthcare went down: A timeline

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

0.5%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?

Make a Prediction

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Comments

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?