Question

Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?

Resolved :No1%

5 comments5

Total Forecasters68

Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

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66.8

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26.6

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Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Half a million patients' personal info stolen in massive health care data breach

FOX News•Dec 18, 2024

How the ransomware attack at Change Healthcare went down: A timeline

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Massive data breach at federal credit union exposes 240,000 members

FOX News•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

0.5%

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Half a million patients' personal info stolen in massive health care data breach

FOX News•Dec 18, 2024

How the ransomware attack at Change Healthcare went down: A timeline

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Massive data breach at federal credit union exposes 240,000 members

FOX News•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

0.5%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?

Make a Prediction

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Comments

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?