Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?

Resolved :No1%
5
14
Total Forecasters100
Community Prediction1% (1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
86.7
Community Peer Score
14.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
White Hat Cyber
Computing and Math
Technology
2022 Leaderboard
Susquehanna Bank
Electronics
Integrated circuit

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