Question

Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?

Resolved :No

14 comments14

Total Forecasters100

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

86.7

Community Peer Score

14.8

median 1.0%mean 5.2%

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

In January 2030, what will the Federal Reserves' Index be for industrial production of semiconductors and circuit boards?

591

Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

58.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Chipmakers urged to leverage AI edge in tackling uncertainties

Korea Herald•Nov 7, 2024

TSMC To Double Production Based On Nvidia Numbers And Overall Demand

Forbes•Nov 8, 2024

In Fencing China Out is Washington Fencing Itself In?

CounterPunch•Nov 8, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In January 2030, what will the Federal Reserves' Index be for industrial production of semiconductors and circuit boards?

591

Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

58.5%