Question

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?

Resolved :No

225 comments225

Total Forecasters897

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.0

Community Peer Score

11.9

median 1.0%mean 1.7%

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

International Nuclear Event Scale

Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant

Chernobyl disaster

International Atomic Energy Agency

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant

Ukraine

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Ukraine Responds to Nuclear Bomb Claims

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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