Question

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction2040-08-27 (2035-07-26 - 2046-10-25)

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2050-01-01

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2035-07-26 12:22

2040-08-27 08:30

2046-10-25 21:23

17.1%

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SpaceX reusable launch system

Colonization of the Moon

Roscosmos

China National Space Administration

NASA finalizes strategy for human presence in space

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Nasa astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams forced to extend their stay on the ISS – but what’s it really like to be stranded in space?

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

The moon may be much older than we thought

Independent•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.57

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

2.09

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

SpaceX reusable launch system

Colonization of the Moon

Roscosmos

China National Space Administration

NASA finalizes strategy for human presence in space

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Nasa astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams forced to extend their stay on the ISS – but what’s it really like to be stranded in space?

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

The moon may be much older than we thought

Independent•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.57

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

2.09

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When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Comments

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?